{"text":[[{"start":9.91,"text":"The writer is former chief of MI6 and UK ambassador to the UN "}],[{"start":15.17,"text":"In the past two weeks, Israel has used its huge military advantage, underpinned by AI-enhanced intelligence, to overwhelm Hizbollah. "},{"start":23.262,"text":"The organisation has lost its top leadership and many of the next generation. "},{"start":27.329,"text":"Its communications system has been destroyed, as have many of its rocket and missile launch sites. "},{"start":32.359,"text":"This comes after Hamas’s military capacity has been largely dismantled. "}],[{"start":37.45,"text":"It feels like we are witnessing a substantial shift in the balance of power in the Middle East, in Israel’s favour and at Iran’s expense. "}],[{"start":45.11,"text":"Since Hamas’s brutal October 7 assault a year ago, Iran has been loud on rhetoric but has done little of substance to protect the militias it helped build up. "},{"start":53.714,"text":"In his UN speech, President Masoud Pezeshkian put the priority on lifting sanctions — a goal diametrically opposed to getting involved on Hizbollah’s behalf. "},{"start":62.132,"text":"Iran’s vice-president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said recently that supporting the Palestinians didn’t mean going to war for them. "},{"start":70.062,"text":"Iran seems cowed, lacking the will and military capacity to respond and not prepared to risk instability at home as it enters an uncertain leadership transition. "}],[{"start":79.46000000000001,"text":"Israel has smelled the weakness in Tehran and is driving home its advantage. "},{"start":83.664,"text":"No one should feel sorry for Hizbollah — for over 40 years, it has used violence to accumulate power in Lebanon. "},{"start":90.09400000000001,"text":"Those who live by the sword die by the sword. "}],[{"start":93.60000000000001,"text":"How will Hizbollah respond now it has been brought to its knees? "},{"start":97.22900000000001,"text":"It still has the much-vaunted precision missiles which could strike at Israeli cities. "},{"start":101.55900000000001,"text":"Iran may be holding Hizbollah back as these were provided as a deterrent against an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. "},{"start":108.25200000000001,"text":"We don’t know if Iran has a dual key over their use. "},{"start":111.132,"text":"But if Israel starts to destroy the missile arsenal then Hizbollah may face a “use it or lose it” moment. "}],[{"start":117.51,"text":"Widespread Israeli civilian deaths would probably trigger a ground invasion by Israel, which some in Hizbollah might relish — a chance to even the scores in the hostile terrain Israeli forces would have to advance through. "},{"start":128.589,"text":"While cross border incursions have begun, Benjamin Netanyahu would probably prefer to avoid a full fledged invasion rather than marching his troops to Beirut’s southern suburbs and to the Bekaa Valley where Hizbollah’s most deadly missiles are probably located. "},{"start":141.369,"text":"A more limited advance to the Litani River is possible but would leave Israel half in and half out, with no exit strategy. "}],[{"start":148.74,"text":"An alternative path for Hizbollah would be a resort to international terrorism. "},{"start":153.144,"text":"When well-organised regional groups lose their leadership, a more extreme and violent entity can take their place. "},{"start":158.674,"text":"Isis emerged after more sophisticated opposition groups in Iraq and Syria were dismantled. "},{"start":163.642,"text":"Killing seasoned political leaders like Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh is a gamble for Israel but one it seems ready for. "}],[{"start":171.84,"text":"Tough military action against Iranian-backed militias dovetails neatly with Israel’s politics, which lean further and further to the right. "},{"start":179.19400000000002,"text":"Enduring stability for Israel will ultimately only come with a political solution in the region. "},{"start":184.087,"text":"But the same domestic dynamics that are driving Netanyahu to press home Israel’s advantage make a broader political settlement more distant. "},{"start":190.979,"text":"The best time to engage in a political process is when you are strong and your enemies are weak. "},{"start":195.609,"text":"But the make-up of Israel’s ruling coalition makes a political initiative with the divided and badly led Palestinians hard to conceive. "}],[{"start":203.38,"text":"It is usually the Americans who try to midwife political progress in the region. "},{"start":207.834,"text":"But the Biden administration’s power — never very strong in the Middle East — is wilting. "},{"start":212.802,"text":"It takes months for a new administration to decide on its priorities, and the approaches of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would be very different. "},{"start":219.969,"text":"Meanwhile, the Middle East will remain tense and volatile. "}],[{"start":223.67,"text":"One actor we have heard little from in the past year is Syria. "},{"start":227.087,"text":"The Syrian regime used to be the arbiter in Lebanon and was willing to kill any Lebanese politician who didn’t bow to diktats from Damascus. "},{"start":233.992,"text":"The regime is now much weaker after the civil war and Bashar al-Assad is not a patch on his father when it comes to political power plays. "},{"start":241.047,"text":"But Syria remains relevant as an ally of Iran, Russia and Hizbollah, and a crucial link in Hizbollah’s supply chain. "}],[{"start":248.64,"text":"Although Hizbollah helped the Assad regime survive in 2013-14, Damascus will want to stay aligned with Iran if it can. "},{"start":255.682,"text":"It also has bitter memories of the 1982 Lebanon war when the Syrian air force intervened only to be destroyed by Israel. "},{"start":262.275,"text":"With Iran and Syria focused on their own issues, only the distant Houthis seem up for attacking Israel, so far to little effect. "},{"start":269.28,"text":"This may be the start of the final chapter for the Axis of Resistance. "}],[{"start":273.44,"text":"This article has been updated "}],[{"start":275.2,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftmailbox.cn/album/173797-1727734309.mp3"}