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There was nothing new in AI in 2024 that matched the sheer “wow” factor of using ChatGPT for the first time, but rapid improvements in the underlying technology still kept the field humming. For 2025, this is how I see things panning out.
2024年，人工智能领域没有出现能与首次使用ChatGPT时的“惊艳”效果相媲美的新事物，但底层技术的快速进步仍然使该领域保持活力。对于2025年，我是这样预测的。
Will AI development hit a wall?
人工智能的发展会遇到瓶颈吗？
In 2025, that momentum will fade. Even some of the tech industry’s biggest optimists have conceded in recent weeks that simply throwing more data and computing power into training ever-larger AI models — a reliable source of improvement in the past — is starting to yield diminishing returns. In the longer term, this robs AI of a dependable source of improvement. At least in the next 12 months, though, other advances should more than take up the slack.
到2025年，这种势头将会减弱。即使是科技行业中最乐观的一些人士，最近几周也承认，仅仅通过投入更多的数据和计算能力来训练更大的AI模型——这一过去可靠的改进来源——开始出现收益递减的现象。从长远来看，这剥夺了AI一个可靠的改进来源。不过，至少在接下来的12个月里，其他进展应该能够弥补这一不足。
The most promising developments look like coming from models that carry out a series of steps before returning an answer, allowing them to query and refine their first responses to deliver more “reasoned” results. It is debatable whether this is really comparable to human reasoning, but systems like OpenAI’s o3 still look like the most interesting advance since the emergence of AI chatbots.
最有前景的发展似乎来自于那些在给出答案之前执行一系列步骤的模型，这些模型可以查询并完善其初始响应，以提供更“有理有据”的结果。虽然这是否真正可与人类推理相媲美尚有争议，但像OpenAI的o3这样的系统仍然看起来是自AI聊天机器人出现以来最有趣的进步。
Google, which regained its AI mojo late in the year after spending two years struggling to catch up with OpenAI, also showed how the new agent-like capabilities in AI could make life easier, such as tracking what you do in your browser and then offering to complete tasks for you. All these demos and prototypes still need to be turned into useful products, but they at least show that there is more than enough in the labs to keep the AI hype going.
谷歌(Google)在花了两年时间努力追赶OpenAI之后，于年底重新找回了其AI的活力，还展示了AI中新的类代理功能如何让生活更轻松，比如跟踪你在浏览器中的操作，然后为你完成任务。所有这些演示和原型仍需转化为有用的产品，但至少表明实验室中有足够的内容来维持AI的热潮。
Will AI’s ‘killer app’ emerge?
人工智能的“杀手级应用”会出现吗？
For most people, the rise of generative AI has meant constantly seeing prompts offering to complete your writing for you or edit your photos in ways you hadn’t thought of — unsought, occasionally useful tools that fall well short of transforming your life.
对于大多数人来说，生成式人工智能的兴起意味着不断看到提示，提供为你完成写作或以你未曾想到的方式编辑照片的选项——这些是未曾寻求但偶尔有用的工具，远未达到改变生活的程度。
Next year is likely to bring the first demonstrations of apps that can intervene more directly: Absorbing all your digital information and learning from your actions so that they can act as virtual memory banks or take over entire aspects of your life. But, concerned about the unreliability of the technology, tech companies will be wary about rushing these out for mass use — and most users will be equally wary about trusting them.
明年可能会首次展示能够更直接干预的应用程序：这些应用程序可以吸收你所有的数字信息，并从你的行为中学习，从而充当虚拟记忆库或接管你生活的各个方面。然而，由于担心技术的不可靠性，科技公司会谨慎地将这些应用程序推向大众使用，而大多数用户也会对信任这些应用程序持谨慎态度。
Instead of true killer apps for AI, this means we’ll be left in the “AI in everything” world that technology users have already become accustomed to: Sometimes intrusive, sometimes helpful, and still not quite providing the really new experiences that would prove the AI era has truly arrived.
这意味着我们将处于技术用户已经习惯的“AI无处不在”的世界，而不是拥有真正的AI杀手级应用：有时令人反感，有时有帮助，但仍未能提供真正新颖的体验，以证明AI时代的真正到来。
Will Nvidia’s GPUs still rule the tech world?
英伟达的GPU还能继续主导科技界吗？
The chipmaker’s huge profits have made it the target of the most powerful tech companies, most of which are now designing their own AI chips. But Nvidia has been moving too fast for rivals, and while a quarter or two could be bumpy as it goes through a major product transition, its Blackwell product cycles should carry it through the year comfortably ahead.
这家芯片制造商的巨额利润使其成为最强大科技公司瞄准的目标，其中大多数公司现在都在设计自己的AI芯片。然而，英伟达(Nvidia)的发展速度太快，竞争对手难以追赶。尽管在经历重大产品过渡时，可能会有一两个季度的波动，但其Blackwell产品周期应能使其在全年中轻松保持领先地位。
That doesn’t mean others won’t make inroads. According to chipmaker Broadcom, three of the biggest tech companies are to use their in-house chip designs for supercomputing “clusters” with 1mn chips each in 2027. That is 10 times the size of Elon Musk’s Colossus system, thought to be the largest cluster of AI chips currently in use.
这并不意味着其他公司不会取得进展。根据芯片制造商博通的说法，到2027年，三家最大的科技公司将使用其内部设计的芯片来构建超级计算“集群”，每个集群将包含100万颗芯片。这是埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)的Colossus系统规模的10倍，该系统被认为是目前使用中的最大AI芯片集群。
Even as its market share starts to erode, though, Nvidia’s software still represents a considerable moat for its business, and by the end of the year it should be on the verge of another important new product cycle.
尽管市场份额开始侵蚀，英伟达的软件仍然是其业务的重要护城河。到今年年底，它应该会处于另一个重要的新产品周期的边缘。
Will the stock market’s AI boom continue?
股市的人工智能热潮会继续吗？
With Big Tech in the midst of an AI race that its leaders believe will determine the future shape of their industry, one of the main forces behind the AI capital spending boom will remain in place. Also, as some companies start to claim big — if unproven — results from applying the technology in their own businesses, many others will feel they have to keep spending, even if they haven’t worked out yet how to use AI productively.
在大型科技公司(Big Tech)处于一场被其领导者认为将决定行业未来形态的人工智能竞赛中时，推动人工智能资本支出激增的主要力量之一将继续存在。此外，随着一些公司开始声称在其自身业务中应用该技术取得了巨大但未经证实的成果，许多其他公司即使尚未弄清如何有效利用人工智能，也会感到必须继续投入。
Whether this is enough for investors to keep throwing their money at AI is another matter. That will depend on other factors, such as the stock market’s confidence in the deregulatory and tax-cutting intentions of the new Trump administration and the readiness of the Federal Reserve to continue with monetary policy easing.
投资者是否会继续将资金投入人工智能是另一回事。这将取决于其他因素，例如股市对特朗普政府放松管制和减税意图的信心，以及美联储是否准备继续实施货币政策宽松。
It all points to a highly volatile year, with some big corrections along the way. But with enough liquidity, Wall Street could succumb to AI hype for some time yet.
这一切都表明，今年将是一个高度动荡的年份，期间可能会出现一些大的调整。但如果流动性充足，华尔街可能会在一段时间内屈从于人工智能的炒作。