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The writer is former chief of MI6 and UK ambassador to the UN
作者是前军情六处处长和英国驻联合国大使
We often think of the Middle East as built around the Arab world. Baghdad and Damascus were the historical centres of authority. In the 20th century, Cairo and Beirut became the region’s cultural capitals until they declined and their influence was overtaken by the oil and gas wealth of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
我们常常认为中东是围绕阿拉伯世界建立的。巴格达和大马士革曾是历史上的权力中心。20世纪，开罗和贝鲁特成为该地区的文化之都，直到它们衰落，其影响力被沙特阿拉伯和海湾的石油和天然气财富所取代。
Today, it is striking that the three most assertive and powerful countries in the region — Israel, Turkey and Iran — are the non-Arab nations. Each is led by an ageing warhorse. Benjamin Netanyahu has been Israel’s prime minister for 17 of the last 28 years. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in power in Turkey for almost 22 years, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been Iran’s supreme leader for 35 years. Like the Bourbons of France 200 years ago, they learn nothing and forget nothing.
今天，令人震惊的是，该地区最强势和最有影响力的三个国家——以色列、土耳其和伊朗——都是非阿拉伯国家。每个国家都由一位年长的老将领导。本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)在过去28年中担任了17年的以色列总理。雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)在土耳其掌权近22年，而阿亚图拉•阿里•哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)则担任伊朗的最高领袖已有35年。就像200年前的法国波旁王朝，他们既不学习也不遗忘。
After the humiliating calamity of Hamas’s brutal October 7 2023 attack, Israel has powered back. Its armed forces and intelligence services have turned the tables, not just on Hamas but on Hizbollah and their sponsors in Iran. In the process, Netanyahu has ignored advice from Israel’s closest friends and shown scant respect for protecting civilian lives. Long-term support for Israel has been eroded in the west but its core enemies are seriously weakened.
在哈马斯(Hamas)于2023年10月7日发动的羞辱性灾难性袭击后，以色列迅速反击。其武装部队和情报机构不仅扭转了对哈马斯的局势，也对黎巴嫩真主党(Hizbollah)及其在伊朗的支持者进行了反击。在此过程中，内塔尼亚胡无视以色列最亲密朋友的建议，对保护平民生命表现出极少的尊重。以色列在西方的长期支持有所削弱，但其核心敌人已被严重削弱。
Israel has shown it is a new Sparta — a small nation with unrivalled military strength. But its politicians reject the idea that a political solution with the Palestinians is needed if the Jewish nation is to enjoy enduring peace and security. Israel has no plan for Gaza beyond indefinite occupation, unless it is the unstated one of driving the Palestinians there into Egypt and in parallel annexing as much of the occupied West Bank as possible. One prediction we can make with confidence, sadly, is that an independent Palestinian state will be no closer in a year’s time than it is now.
以色列展示了它是一个新的斯巴达——一个拥有无与伦比军事力量的小国。但其政治家们拒绝接受这样的观点：如果犹太民族要享有持久的和平与安全，就需要与巴勒斯坦人达成政治解决方案。以色列对加沙没有计划，除了无限期占领，除非它未明言的计划是将那里的巴勒斯坦人驱赶到埃及，同时尽可能多地吞并被占领的西岸(West Bank)。遗憾的是，我们可以有把握地预测，一年后一个独立的巴勒斯坦国将不会比现在更接近实现。
As the new year begins, Israel’s attention is focused on Iran, which was the big loser of 2024. Khamenei is becoming visibly weaker, both physically and politically. The main candidate to succeed him is now his son Mojtaba. Second-generation autocrats rise to power on the back of privilege and entitlement. They don’t bear the scars of struggle or learn the hard lessons their fathers acquired. Hafez al-Assad was a ruthless leader of Syria, but he knew the limits of power and when to negotiate. His son Bashar had none of those skills. The result was even more brutality and, in time, regime collapse.
新年伊始，以色列的注意力集中在2024年的大输家伊朗身上。哈梅内伊在身体和政治上都明显变得虚弱。他的主要继任者候选人是他的儿子穆吉塔巴。第二代独裁者凭借特权和权利上台。他们没有经历过斗争的伤痕，也没有学到他们父辈所获得的艰难教训。哈菲兹•阿萨德(Hafez al-Assad)是叙利亚的一个无情领导者，但他知道权力的界限以及何时谈判。他的儿子巴沙尔则没有这些技能。结果是更加残酷，最终导致政权崩溃。
The experience of losing their Syrian ally should make the Iranian military wary of a dynastic succession. They will try to ensure that a new supreme leader is not all-powerful inside the regime. But new leaders of stagnating autocracies can bring surprises. Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev are obvious examples. Closer to home for Iran is Saudi Arabia’s transformation under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Each recognised their country’s vulnerability and sought an economic and political strategy, usually involving some openness to the outside world, to underpin the autocratic system for decades to come. This seems unlikely in Iran but shouldn’t be ruled out.
失去叙利亚盟友的经历应该让伊朗军方对王朝继承保持警惕。他们将努力确保新的最高领袖在政权内部不是全权掌控。然而，停滞不前的专制政权的新领导人可能会带来意外。邓小平和米哈伊尔•戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)就是明显的例子。对伊朗来说，更近的例子是沙特阿拉伯在王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)领导下的转型。他们都认识到自己国家的脆弱性，并寻求经济和政治战略，通常包括对外界的一些开放，以支持未来几十年的专制体系。这在伊朗似乎不太可能，但也不应被排除。
A weakened regime presents an opportunity for a new negotiation, even if Khamenei senior staggers on for another year or two. Donald Trump may prefer a political deal to taking part in Netanyahu’s preferred military option to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel will argue that Tehran will string out talks while they covertly make progress towards a nuclear weapon, the strategic case for which is now even more compelling for Iran. These are valid concerns. Khamenei also distrusts America even more than US politicians distrust Iran. It may require new leadership in Tehran before Iran changes course.
一个削弱的政权为新的谈判提供了机会，即使哈梅内伊长老再坚持一两年。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)可能更倾向于达成政治协议，而不是参与内塔尼亚胡偏好的军事行动来摧毁伊朗的核设施。以色列会辩称，德黑兰会在谈判中拖延，同时秘密推进核武器的研发，而现在对伊朗来说，这一战略理由更具吸引力。这些都是合理的担忧。哈梅内伊对美国的信任度甚至比美国政客对伊朗的信任度还要低。可能需要德黑兰的新领导层才能让伊朗改变方向。
The very welcome surprise of 2024 was the collapse of the Assad regime and the opening of a path to a better future for the Syrian people. Turkey, like Israel, was a winner last year but it too has problems seizing new opportunities. Erdoğan seems to view Syria through the distorting prism of the Kurdish question, which will make it harder for Syria’s opposition leaders to come together and forge a new constitution that recognises the diversity — religious and ethnic — of their country.
2024年一个非常受欢迎的惊喜是阿萨德政权的垮台，为叙利亚人民开辟了一条通往更美好未来的道路。土耳其和以色列一样，去年是赢家，但它也面临着抓住新机遇的问题。埃尔多安似乎通过扭曲的库尔德问题视角来看待叙利亚，这将使叙利亚反对派领导人更难团结起来，制定一部承认其国家宗教和民族多样性的新宪法。
Erdoğan, a remarkable survivor, has built up Turkey’s power across the region and in Africa. He has shown that a philosophy of political Islam can be successful and needn’t lead to an Islamic state and strict sharia law. In that sense, he can provide a model for Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the HTS Islamist group that now holds power in Damascus.
埃尔多安是一位杰出的幸存者，他在整个地区和非洲提升了土耳其的实力。他展示了政治伊斯兰的理念可以取得成功，并不一定导致建立伊斯兰国家和严格的伊斯兰教法。从这个意义上说，他可以为现在掌握大马士革权力的沙姆解放组织(HTS)领导人艾哈迈德•沙拉(Ahmed al-Sharaa)提供一个榜样。
There’s a lesson here for western capitals, and for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. We are right to be wary of al-Sharaa’s extremist background. But the journey of young radicals from political violence to national leadership is a well-trodden one. The diplomatic task ahead is to maximise the chances of success in Syria, by being bold in lifting sanctions, removing the terrorist proscriptions and doing all we can to support the Syrian opposition to come together.
这对西方国家的首都以及利雅得和阿布扎比(Abu Dhabi)来说是一个教训。我们对沙拉的极端主义背景保持警惕是正确的。然而，年轻激进分子从政治暴力走向国家领导的道路是常见的。未来的外交任务是通过大胆解除制裁、取消恐怖主义禁令，并尽力支持叙利亚反对派团结，来最大化叙利亚成功的机会。
The instinct in western capitals seems to be to pay out the rope slowly and to resist Islamists on ideological grounds. But that is a path that will make it more likely that we end up either with fragmentation, as in Libya, or with a new dictator, as in Tunisia. Western countries also need to avoid the errors of the Bourbons.
西方国家的首都似乎本能地选择慢慢放松绳索，并在意识形态上抵制伊斯兰主义者。但这条道路更可能导致我们最终要么像利比亚那样出现分裂，要么像突尼斯那样出现新的独裁者。西方国家还需要避免重蹈波旁王朝的错误。