Russia races to build rival to Elon Musk’s Starlink

{"text":[[{"start":11.66,"text":"Russia is racing to launch its own version of Elon Musk’s Starlink that could allow its operators to control drones en masse deep inside Ukraine."}],[{"start":20.92,"text":"Moscow’s flagship space project Rassvet — a secure communications system using a low-earth-orbit broadband network of satellites, ground stations and terminals — may be online as early as next year, analysts have warned."}],[{"start":34.2,"text":"The constellation would make Russian attacks more deadly by making it easier to transmit data and control drones in real time over long distances, and strike moving targets. It could also be used to provide targeting data for missile systems, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency."}],[{"start":51.1,"text":"“Its greatest danger lies not simply in providing Russia with an alternative to Starlink, but in transforming relatively inexpensive strike drones into weapons capable of identifying, tracking and engaging moving targets deep inside Ukrainian territory,’’ said Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former Ukrainian defence and intelligence adviser who now heads the Center for Defense Reforms (CDR),"}],[{"start":73.88,"text":"“With Russia’s rapidly expanding drone production, this could significantly increase the effectiveness of its strikes and undermine Ukraine’s ability to protect critical military and civilian infrastructure,’’ he said."}],[{"start":86.16,"text":"Rassvet’s deployment could also pose security risks for Europe, as the system could be used to operate drones anywhere within its coverage area. “There are potential applications for terrorism and sabotage,” said Rob Lee, a Kyiv-based military expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute."}],[{"start":102.68,"text":"Starlink and the military-grade version called Starshield have played an instrumental role in allowing Ukrainian drones flown manually to strike deeper within Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine, while bypassing traditional jamming systems. Rassvet could allow Russian forces to do the same, analysts and Ukrainian officials say."}],[{"start":120.8,"text":"“I think the number one priority for [Russia] is direct video signal with low latency for the attack and intelligence drones flying over Ukraine,” said Nick Kovalski, founder of Kyiv-based defence consultancy East Front Solutions (EFS)."}],[{"start":133.72,"text":"Still, production delays and heavy reliance on Chinese technology risk derailing Moscow’s ambitions. Satellite launches for Rassvet — which means dawn in Russian — are running behind schedule, though there have been several successful connectivity tests."}],[{"start":148.92,"text":"Experts estimate that Rassvet can currently provide up to three hours of connectivity a day, with an uninterrupted window of about 50 minutes. Russia used Rassvet over Ukraine for “several hours” by late July, Ukraine’s military intelligence told Janes, a defence publication, but for now, that is not enough for real battlefield tasks."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":168.48,"text":"“You cannot simply hang this system over Ukraine: the satellites are constantly moving, and the Earth is rotating,” said Anatoly Zak, a veteran space journalist who runs the independent publication RussianSpaceWeb. “To control a drone, you need enough satellites to pass the signal from one to another linking you to it.”"}],[{"start":187.72,"text":"Rassvet was started in 2020 as a civilian project aimed at bringing remote corners of Russia online. But the Kremlin became convinced of the need for a Starlink equivalent after its blitzkrieg in Ukraine failed in the chaotic opening weeks of the invasion. That need became more urgent in early 2026 when SpaceX disabled unregistered Starlink terminals which Russia had been using illegally."}],[{"start":211.78,"text":"Officials picked Rassvet, owned by private company Bureau 1440, for the challenge, and in 2025 committed to fund 40 per cent of its estimated Rbs514.7bn ($6.2bn) cost. It was swiftly folded into Russian space agency Roscosmos’ launch infrastructure. Bureau 1440 and Roscosmos did not respond to requests for comment from the FT."}],[{"start":237.52,"text":"FAB Rassvet, a Bureau 1440 group company, has been under US sanctions since October 2024."}],[{"start":245.04,"text":"Vladimir Putin hailed Rassvet’s progress at the Russia-Africa summit in Moscow last week. “We are only taking our first steps. But we are proud that we have begun, and that we are doing it on our own,” the Russian president said, adding Russia was “in close contact with Musk”, whom he called “a genius”, to make sure no one is “getting in each other’s way in orbit”."}],[{"start":266.24,"text":"Bureau 1440 has launched 32 production satellites so far, two of which were lost. That makes its target of having more than 250 satellites at around 800km height by 2027 look steep."}],[{"start":276.64,"text":"Most satellites have settled at around 510km, which could be deliberate: flying closer to Earth allows smaller ground terminals, an advantage for military use."}],[{"start":288.84,"text":"Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), doubts that Rassvet is about to reach full functionality. “Russia would need at least 16-17 launches, which is unlikely to be feasible by the end of 2027.”"}],[{"start":303.16,"text":"Luzin attributed the delays to heavy dependence on imports from China, despite Rassvet’s claim that its systems are made using domestic electronics wherever available."}],[{"start":312.88,"text":"CDR identified nearly $68mn foreign-currency payments by Bureau 1440 to its suppliers in 2025. Its research found that many of them were China-linked. Dozens of Bureau 1440 employees went on business trips to China, including its space and manufacturing hubs, Taiwan and Japan, CDR said."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":333.44,"text":"Western restrictions on the network remain, according to CDR, “fragmented” and “unsynchronised.” Of Rassvet’s 21 core suppliers, only five are under western sanctions. Even when one channel gets blacklisted, a replacement emerges, CDR found."}],[{"start":349.56,"text":"Ukrainian presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov said last week that Russia could launch Rassvet “very quickly”, and that it isn’t using it in Ukraine yet only because that would require calculating the flight path in an area with 30-minute windows."}],[{"start":363,"text":"RussianSpaceWeb’s Zak said that launch and ground infrastructure remain vulnerable during deployment, but once the system is fully operational, “the situation will be much more difficult.”"}],[{"start":373.32,"text":"The US cannot simply stop Rassvet from transmitting over Ukraine, analysts say, while jamming is costly and limited in scope. Shooting down satellites would be “suicidal for everyone” because of the resulting debris, said Vitaly Egorov, a Russian space expert."}],[{"start":388.48,"text":"Data visualisation by Alan Smith"}],[{"start":395.27,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1794118328_6159.mp3"}