Last week I asked whether AI is a bubble, boon or bane. My answers were, in order, “up to a point, yes, and yes”. Now, I want to consider the last query, about “banes” more deeply. The issues I will consider are: just how dangerous is AI, what should we do to contain it and will any form of regulation work? My main conclusions will be that it is definitely dangerous, we should certainly try to regulate it, and yet, in all probability, the attempt will fail.Some have told me I have no right to comment because I am no expert. Others argue that we must embrace whatever technology gives us, because it is the source of economic growth. Both views are wrong. A democracy is a shared political project. We all have a right to participate in debates on how to manage dangerous new technologies.
上周我曾探讨人工智能究竟是泡沫、是福、还是祸？我的答案依次是：“在某种程度上是；是；是。”现在，我想更深入地思考最后一个问题：人工智能是祸吗？我将考虑的议题是：人工智能究竟有多危险？我们应该如何遏制它？有没有任何形式的监管将会奏效？我的主要结论是：它肯定是危险的；我们肯定应该尝试监管它；然而，这种尝试极有可能会失败。
This was true when the atomic bomb was invented. It is also true of AI, which will have far more complex, yet also perilous, consequences. Moreover, the purported right to decide such things claimed by some tech titans was surely lost after the huge damage done by social media to the young and the public good of sound information.
有人告诉我，我无权发表评论，因为我不是专家。另一些人则争辩说，我们必须拥抱技术带给我们的一切，因为那是经济增长的源泉。这两种观点都错了。民主是一项共同参与的政治事业。对于如何管理危险的新技术，我们所有人都有权参与辩论。
Is the comparison between AI and nuclear weapons unreasonable? No, because the former might also bring great harms. These fall into three rough categories: a collapse in fundamental human values; some huge specific dangers; and widespread disruption.
原子弹发明之时，这个道理就是成立的。它对人工智能——这项技术将带来复杂得多、但也危险的后果——同样适用。况且，在社交媒体对年轻人以及可靠信息这一公共物品造成巨大损害后，某些科技行业大人物自认为有权决定此类事情的主张显然失去了正当性。