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China’s rapid buildout of electric vehicle battery capacity could itself run out of energy. Capacity will be twice this year’s demand, according to commodity research group CRU. That finding suggests demand for lithium will be more muted than anticipated by bulls. These include US chemicals group Albemarle.
中国电动汽车电池产能的快速增长本身就可能导致能源枯竭。大宗商品研究机构CRU称，产能将是今年需求量的两倍。这一结论表明，锂需求将比看涨者预期的更为低迷。其中包括美国化工集团雅宝(Albemarle)。
The world’s leading lithium producer is closing in on an all-cash deal for Australia’s Liontown Resources. This is worth A$3 per share or A$6.6bn ($4.3bn) in total. Despite weak spot lithium prices, down 61 per cent this year, Albemarle still had to pay up. Its previous offer in March was A$2.50.
这家全球领先的锂生产商即将与澳大利亚的Liontown Resources达成一笔全现金交易。该交易每股价值3澳元，总计66亿澳元(合43亿美元)。尽管锂现货价格疲软，今年以来已下跌61%，但雅宝仍不得不支付这笔钱。此前它在3月份的出价为2.50澳元。
Liontown will now open its books. Albemarle wants Kathleen Valley, the fifth largest hard rock lithium resource in Australia with 5.4mn tonnes. Australia matters to the US producer. It already has large stakes in the first and third largest mines there.
Liontown现在将公开它的账目。雅宝想要的是澳大利亚第五大硬岩锂资源——凯瑟琳谷(Kathleen Valley)，储量540万吨。澳大利亚对这家美国生产商很重要。该公司已经在当地第一和第三大矿山持有大量股份。
The resource-dependent nation welcomes US lithium investment to balance Chinese interest. In July Australia’s Treasury blocked a takeover by a China-linked shareholder of Alita, a lithium miner in administration.
这个依赖资源的国家欢迎美国的锂投资，以平衡中国的利益。今年7月，澳大利亚财政部阻止了一家与中国有关联的股东收购处于破产管理中的锂矿商Alita。
Albemarle’s shares have done little for two years. Trailing one-year ebitda for its lithium division, which makes 88 per cent of group profits, has decelerated. Profit margins have slipped in recent quarters.
两年来，雅宝的股价几乎没有上涨。该公司锂业务占集团利润的88%，其过去一年滚动ebitda已出现放缓。利润率在最近几个季度有所下滑。
This deal would be the largest lithium mining deal announced to date, according to Dealogic data. But it would not add to cash flow before 2025. That puts the offer price at 16 times consensus ebitda for that year. Larger local rival Pilbara Resources, which is already profitable, trades at a third of that valuation.
Dealogic的数据显示，这笔交易将是迄今为止宣布的最大一笔锂矿交易。但它在2025年之前不会增加现金流。这使得收购价格达到当年ebitda预期的16倍。规模更大的本土竞争对手Pilbara Resources已实现盈利，其交易价值仅为上述估值的三分之一。
Liontown’s shareholders should be pleased. Its own valuation back in late 2021 — when spot lithium prices were similar — put a A$4.2bn value on Kathleen Valley. Albemarle’s downstream lithium conversion plants are some 1,000km away by rail near Perth. A long Australian rail link is preferable to long-distance road links in developing countries such as Mali, as Liberum points out.
Liontown的股东应该感到高兴。早在2021年底，当现货锂价格相近时，其对凯瑟琳谷的估值为42亿澳元。雅宝的下游锂转化厂距离珀斯约1000公里铁路。Liberum指出，与马里等发展中国家的长途公路相比，澳大利亚的长途铁路更为可取。
Albemarle has plenty of form in Australia. But given battery overcapacity in China, the chances of its stock price benefiting from this added production are slim.
雅宝在澳大利亚有很好的表现。但考虑到中国的电池产能过剩，其股价从新增产量中受益的可能性很小。