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The hedge fund of billionaire trader Chris Rokos has racked up profits of more than $1bn so far this year, as a bet that the market was getting ahead of itself in forecasting aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve paid off handsomely.
亿万富翁交易员克里斯•罗科斯(Chris Rokos)的对冲基金今年迄今已积累超过10亿美元的利润，因为对市场过早预测美联储将大幅降息的押注取得了丰厚的回报。
Rokos Capital Management, which manages just under $16bn of assets, is up 8.8 per cent in 2024, according to a person who had seen the numbers.
根据一位看过数据的人士透露，管理着近160亿美元资产的Rokos Capital Management在2024年增值了8.8%。
The company has told investors that the gains, which were up to Friday last week, were largely driven by a sell-off in bond markets as investors came round to the Fed’s view that rates would fall slower than markets expected late last year, the person said.
该人士说，该公司已告诉投资者，截至上周五的收益主要是由债券市场的抛售推动的，因为投资者开始接受美联储的观点，即利率下降的速度将慢于市场去年底的预期。
Rokos Capital declined to comment.
Rokos Capital拒绝置评。
In December, traders were pricing in roughly six quarter-point rate cuts in 2024 from the current level of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent, double the three signposted by Fed officials. But markets have dialled back their expectations following pushback from the central bank and a run of solid economic data that suggests the US economy is not sliding into a downturn.
去年12月，交易员预计2024年将从目前的5.25%至5.5%降息约6次，每次25个基点，是美联储官员预计的3次的两倍。但在美联储反驳以及一系列稳健的经济数据表明美国经济并未陷入衰退之后，市场已经调低了预期。
Data released this month showed that inflation eased less than expected to an annual pace of 3.1 per cent in January, leading investors to ditch bets that borrowing costs would fall as soon as May.
本月公布的数据显示，1月份通胀率放缓至3.1%的年率，低于预期，导致投资者放弃了对借贷成本最快将在5月份下降的押注。
Markets are currently pricing in three or four cuts by the end of this year, with the first move in June.
目前，市场预计今年年底前将有三到四次降息，首次降息将在6月份。
Two-year Treasury yields, which closely track interest rate expectations, have climbed to 4.6 per cent from less than 4.2 per cent in early January. Bond yields move inversely from prices.
与利率预期密切相关的两年期国债收益率已从1月初的不到4.2%攀升至4.6%。债券收益率与价格走势相反。
The figures came after Rokos outperformed macro hedge fund rivals Brevan Howard and Caxton last year, delivering 8.8 per cent for the year. Brevan Howard’s flagship fund was down 2.1 per cent while its Alpha Strategies fund was up 2.4 per cent, according to people who have seen the figures.
此前，Rokos去年的表现超过了宏观对冲基金竞争对手Brevan Howard和Caxton，全年回报率为8.8%。据知情人士透露，Brevan Howard的旗舰基金下跌2.1%，而其Alpha Strategies基金上涨2.4%。
Rokos was a star trader at Brevan, which he co-founded, earning billions of dollars for investors before striking out on his own in 2015.
Rokos曾是他共同创立的Brevan的明星交易员，在2015年独立创业前为投资者赚取了数十亿美元。
Macro hedge fund Caxton’s Macro fund was down 9.2 per cent last year, while its flagship Global Investments fund lost about 1 per cent, according to investors.
投资者表示，宏观对冲基金Caxton的Macro基金去年下跌9.2%，而其旗舰Global Investments基金亏损约1%。