By assassinating Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel has dealt a grievous blow to one of its most powerful foes. Over three decades, Nasrallah transformed the group, with Iranian backing, into the Middle East’s most heavily armed non-state actor and the dominant political force in Lebanon. His killing has severely wounded the movement, while underlining Israel’s military superiority over Iran’s so-called axis of resistance.
Many other senior Hizbollah figures have been killed in Israeli air strikes. But the relentless bombardment has wrought devastation on Lebanon, spreading fear and panic across the nation. More than 1,000 people have been killed in the past two weeks, and up to 1mn forced from their homes. As the bombs rain down, they fear what comes next. Many in Lebanon opposed Nasrallah and blamed Hizbollah for the crisis-ridden country’s ills. But Hizbollah also represents a large swath of Shia society in a fragile nation where Muslim and Christian sects coexist uneasily. Under Nasrallah, the movement was cohesive and disciplined. In his absence, many worry it might fragment or become more extreme.
Israelis, too, should be wary. They celebrated the death of their foe, but having a failed state on their northern border, or a more extremist enemy bent on revenge, will not serve their security interests. Hizbollah has been battered, but it will not disappear. History has shown that when one militant leader is killed, another steps into the breach, often more radical than the former.
As Israel prepares to mark the grim anniversary of Hamas’s horrific October 7 attack, which killed 1,200 people and ignited the year of conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should take his wins and chart a new course. He should embrace the diplomatic off-ramps that have been available for months to end the war in Gaza, secure the release of hostages, and halt the conflict with Hizbollah.
After pummelling Gaza for 12 months, Israel has killed many of Hamas’s senior leaders and severely depleted its military capacity. The offensive has left Gaza in ruins, and more than 41,000 Gazans have been killed, according to Palestinian officials. Hamas will not be able to control Gaza or repeat the atrocities of a year ago. On the northern front, Netanyahu’s stated aim is to ensure the safe return of 60,000 Israelis displaced by Hizbollah’s rocket fire, which began a day after the October 7 attack. But that will not happen as long as the conflict continues.
Worryingly, however, the chances of Netanyahu and his far-right government banking their military gains and choosing the path of diplomacy over yet more war appear as remote as ever. Since killing Nasrallah on Friday, Israel has continued to pound Lebanon, launched limited ground incursions across the border in a potential prelude to a land invasion, and struck Houthi rebels in Yemen. Netanyahu has also stepped up his belligerent rhetoric against Iran.
The US and Israel’s other allies preach de-escalation but are unable or unwilling to rein in Netanyahu, whose political interests are served by keeping Israel locked in conflict. The Biden administration looks ever more impotent as the US election nears, despite the risk that Netanyahu could seek to drag Washington into a war with Iran.
Israel’s desire to restore its deterrent is one thing. But careering headlong into forever wars, giddy on its tactical success, with no clear strategy or end game, is not a recipe for long-term security and stability, for Israel or the region. The Middle East has witnessed its darkest year in decades. The killing and destruction must stop.