尊敬的用户您好，这是来自FT中文网的温馨提示：如您对更多FT中文网的内容感兴趣，请在苹果应用商店或谷歌应用市场搜索“FT中文网”，下载FT中文网的官方应用。
The writer advises the Observatory Group and is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations
本文作者是Observatory Group的顾问、德国外交关系协会高级研究员
After having tried to prepare the French public and political class for the inevitability of a tough budget of tax rises and spending cuts, Prime Minister François Bayrou seems to have thrown in the towel. Indeed, by deciding to call for a vote of confidence on September 8, he has chosen to expose that he doesn’t have the majority to govern and that France doesn’t have a parliament prepared to face the reality of its yawning public deficit.
在尝试让法国公众和政治阶层准备面对一份包括加税与削减支出在内的不可避免的紧缩预算之后，总理弗朗索瓦•贝鲁(François Bayrou)似乎已经放弃继续努力。事实上，他决定在9月8日进行信任投票，等于承认自己没有执政所需的多数，而法国议会也未准备好直面巨额公共赤字的现实。
Earlier this year, Bayrou had asked President Emmanuel Macron to submit his broad fiscal plan to a referendum, and to pave the way for an electoral reform introducing proportional representation (a nod to far-right leader Marine Le Pen). With that he hoped not only to start the necessary process of fiscal consolidation but also create the political momentum to prepare for the presidential election in 2027. Macron flatly rejected the demand, leaving the frustrated prime minister with limited options.
今年早些时候，贝鲁曾要求总统埃马纽埃尔•马克龙将其总体财政方案提交公投，并为引入比例代表制（向极右翼领袖马琳•勒庞示好）的选举改革铺路。借此，他不仅希望启动必要的财政整顿进程，也想营造政治势头，为2027年总统选举做准备。马克龙断然拒绝了这一要求，使受挫的总理可用的选项所剩无几。
Bayrou’s current gambit, however, is a dereliction of duty. It will leave the next government with the task of starting the budgetary negotiations from scratch, when this government could have at least tried to undertake the dirty sacrificial work of securing the best possible compromise in parliament as his predecessor Michel Barnier did. Instead, Bayrou has in effect renounced his duties, and his finance minister opted to undermine the credibility of France’s signature by publicly betting that the country’s borrowing costs would rise beyond that of fiscal laggards such as Italy, and that the IMF could be called in to deal with the country’s adjustment needs.
然而，贝鲁当前的做法是失职之举。它将把从零开始进行预算谈判的任务留给下届政府，而本届政府本可至少尝试承担这项肮脏且牺牲性的工作，在议会争取尽可能大的妥协，正如其前任米歇尔•巴尼耶(Michel Barnier)所做的。相反，贝鲁实际上放弃了其职责，他的财政部长则选择削弱法国信用的可信度，公开押注该国借贷成本将升至超过意大利等财政落后者，甚至可能需要国际货币基金组织(IMF)介入以应对该国的调整需求。
Macron must now make a crucial choice. He could try to change the political dynamic and parliamentary arithmetic by taking the risk of calling another snap parliamentary election, which would only produce a worse electoral result for his party and probably bring the far-right Rassemblement National closer to an absolute majority. Or he could choose to make do with the current parliament, and help with the heavy task of passing the budget through some creative parliamentary procedure and astute changes to the balance of government revenue and spending.
马克龙现在必须作出关键抉择。他可以尝试通过冒险再次提前举行议会选举来改变政治态势和议会格局，但这样做只会给其政党带来更糟糕的选举结果，并很可能让极右翼国民联盟(RN)更接近绝对多数。或者，他也可以选择将就利用本届议会，通过一些富有创意的议会程序以及对政府收支平衡进行精明调整，来协助完成通过预算这一艰巨任务。
As he has done in the past, Macron should force Bayrou to carry on his obligations temporarily as a caretaker and introduce a budget law before October, as established by the constitution.
如之前所做的那样，马克龙应迫使贝鲁暂时以看守总理身份继续暂时履行其职责，并按宪法规定在10月前提出一份预算法案。
If no budget law is introduced by then, the government could instead pass a special law authorising it to collect taxes and carry on spending as per the preceding year’s budget. This would still allow the government to freeze spending by decree.
如果届时仍未通过任何预算法，政府可以改而通过一部特别法律，授权其按照上一年的预算征税和继续进行支出。这仍将允许政府通过法令冻结支出。
Alternatively, the government could opt to drag on parliamentary debates such that no vote takes place within 70 days of the budget being submitted, paving the way for the adoption of the budget by executive decree in keeping with Article 47 of France’s constitution. This original and effective option was studied by Barnier last year, who instead opted for the riskier Article 49.3, staking the confidence of his government on the budget vote, by which he fell.
或者，政府可以选择拖长议会辩论，使预算提交后70天内不能举行任何表决，从而为依据法国宪法第47条以行政命令通过预算铺平道路。去年巴尼耶曾研究过这一创新而有效的选项，但他选择了更冒险的第49.3条，把对政府的信任押在预算表决上，最终因此下台。
On substance, the government will have to create some goodwill on the left by making a few small and symbolic concessions on the 2023 pension reform and find spending cuts that are more targeted and sustainable than those proposed by Bayrou. It also needs to cautiously calibrate tax increases on the wealthy to guarantee a less socially regressive fiscal adjustment without undermining the country’s precarious business environment.
在实质层面，政府需要通过在2023年养老金改革上作出一些小幅且具有象征意义的让步来争取左翼的一些善意，并找到比贝鲁建议的更具针对性和可持续的削减开支方案。同时，还需谨慎设定对富人的加税幅度，在不破坏国家本已脆弱的营商环境的前提下，确保财政调整引发的社会倒退幅度更小。
This is a difficult economic and political balancing act, but it is wholly achievable. The alternative is a messy snap election or another doomed budget that would only expose further France’s daunting fiscal challenge and its deepening political impasse.
这是一场艰难的经济与政治平衡行动，但完全可以实现。否则就会出现一场混乱的提前选举，或另一份注定失败的预算，只会进一步暴露法国严峻的财政挑战及其日益加深的政治僵局。