{"text":[[{"start":5.38,"text":"If there were a Nobel Prize for patience, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would run away with it. The Ukrainian leader’s February encounter with the just-inaugurated Donald Trump went down as the most infamous spectacle of schoolyard bullying in recent history. Zelenskyy had no choice but to shrug off that Oval Office taunting. His endurance test shows little hope of flagging. In Trump’s latest dressing down last Friday, he warned Zelenskyy his country would be destroyed unless he ceded territory to Russia. Zelenskyy has characteristically downplayed this recent bout of nastiness. Has Trump once shouted at Putin? That was a rhetorical question."}],[{"start":46.31,"text":"In fairness, Putin might also get a couple of nominations for the patience prize. Early into his ill-fated 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which Trump hailed as a “genius” move, the Russian president’s long-term hedge quickly came into view; he would gain in negotiations from a re-elected Trump what he could not win on the battlefield. Such talk was dismissed at the time as far-fetched. But to judge by Trump’s actions since January, rather than his words, the Kremlin’s bet is paying off. Without conceding to any of Trump’s demands, Putin was given a second summit with him this year — this time hosted by Hungary’s pro-Putin Viktor Orbán. Zelenskyy will need to dig even deeper for the necessary forbearance in the coming days."}],[{"start":97.59,"text":"Trump, by contrast, is increasingly impatient. On Monday he said that of all the global conflicts, there is just “one more to go”. Among others, Trump claims to have ended wars between Israel and Hamas, India and Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, Armenia and Azerbaijan and Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Zelenskyy’s stubbornness robbed Trump of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize in his view. Much like Gaza, Trump sees Ukraine as a commercial opportunity with a lot of undeveloped seafront. He sees Zelenskyy’s government as an outgunned recalcitrant that should know when it is defeated. As Trump told the Ukrainian president in February, “you don’t have the cards”."}],[{"start":147.38,"text":"But Zelenskyy does hold cards, including the increasingly robust support of the “coalition of the willing”. It looks likely that Europe will find a way to lend Ukraine most of Russia’s frozen $200bn central bank reserves, which would be enough to tide Ukraine through the next couple of years. In addition to European military supplies, Ukraine has dramatically increased its scope to strike oil refineries and air bases deep inside Russia. Many saw Russia’s recent drone probing of several Nato countries as a sign of Putin’s ebullience. But his “grey zone” activity could as easily be interpreted as weakness."}],[{"start":187.97,"text":"According to The Economist, 100,000 Russian troops have been killed in combat in 2025 alone — a roughly five to one ratio of Ukraine’s deaths. That is at least six times the Soviet Union’s 1980s death toll in Afghanistan — an unpopular war that drained support for Moscow’s regime. If those kill estimates are correct, Russia has a bigger recruitment problem than Ukraine in spite of having almost four times the population. Moreover, Ukraine’s ability to target Russia’s oil and gas war-funding spigot is draining Putin of money for his recruitment bonuses. He could be forced to shift to conscription for the frontline, which would jeopardise support for his regime. Though Ukraine continues to suffer from its own thinning ranks, invading armies tend to suffer heavier losses than defending ones."}],[{"start":243.35,"text":"Putin has almost nothing to show for all that blood. Russia’s military has only fractionally expanded its territory this year — a point Zelenskyy keeps trying to drive home with his maps. Trump reportedly swept them off the table last Friday. The White House’s newest complaint is that Americans are suffering from war fatigue. This might surprise many Americans, who see little of the Ukraine-Russian war on their screens. It would also come as a surprise to the US taxpayer. Congress’s last Ukraine funding bill was in Spring 2024. Trump will not ask for more. Whatever future arms supplies Trump permits will be sold, not donated, to Ukraine."}],[{"start":290.84,"text":"What makes Trump so sure Putin is winning? Explaining why Putin is so good at sweet-talking the US president triggers polarised responses. Some believe that Putin has some kind of a secret hold over Trump. Others say that is deep state propaganda. Whatever lies behind Trump’s cupidity, we should be long past caring why. The reality is settled fact. Putin has fewer cards in his hand than Trump supposes. One of those cards is Trump."}],[{"start":331.16999999999996,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1761092149_6742.mp3"}