It is time for a European Security Council

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":4.65,"text":"Hello again. Who should you call if you want to speak to Europe? Never mind that Henry Kissinger never posed the question that is frequently attributed to him. The EU tried to solve it anyway, creating the position of High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy in 1999 and then giving it a “double hat” by making it simultaneously vice-president of the European Commission from 2009."}],[{"start":27.549999999999997,"text":"Holders of the post have seldom carried the full authority of an EU foreign policy chief. They have had to compete for attention with other top EU officials let alone the EU’s 27 national leaders. That’s especially true under the incumbent, Kaja Kallas. There’s also been a proliferation of new foreign policy and defence groups across Europe in recent years. And now there’s momentum behind the idea of a European Security Council. Why and what for?"}],[{"start":54.3,"text":"You can reach me at ben.hall@ft.com"}],[{"start":58.9,"text":"Old idea made new"}],[{"start":61.199999999999996,"text":"Michel Barnier, a former French prime minister, European commissioner and Brexit negotiator, is the latest figure to weigh in. After roughly two decades, the EU needs to reflect on whether its foreign policy apparatus is “working today or not” he told the Globsec conference in Prague last week."}],[{"start":79,"text":"Barnier suggested a shift back to a “more intergovernmental framework” with the creation of a European Council for Security and Defence. It would include the UK, Ukraine and Norway. It would focus on defence, defence industry, intelligence and strategically important technology, he said."}],[{"start":95.85,"text":"The ESC is not a new idea. Emmanuel Macron proposed it in a speech in Berlin while campaigning for the French presidency in 2017. Together with then German chancellor Angela Merkel, Macron saw it as a way of keeping Brexit Britain engaged with the EU. London showed zero interest. The idea fizzled."}],[{"start":116.19999999999999,"text":"Fresh impetus"}],[{"start":117.74999999999999,"text":"It was put back on the policymaking agenda earlier this year by Andrius Kubilius, European commissioner for defence and a former Lithuanian prime minister. In a weighty, well-argued essay, Kubilius said an ESC would provide the “proper leadership platform for discussions and swift preparation of decisions” Europe needs if it is to become responsible for its own defence and ready to face down Russian aggression."}],[{"start":141.39999999999998,"text":"Two fundamental changes to European security are giving fresh impetus to the ESC idea."}],[{"start":147.54999999999998,"text":"The first is American disengagement from conventional defence of Europe and the possibility of an antagonistic or even aggressive US that could blow apart the transatlantic alliance. Europe relies on the US not just for the bulk of Nato’s rapidly deployable fighting forces, intelligence, surveillance and other critical assets but also for political and strategic leadership within the alliance. That leadership could be even harder to replace than manpower and weapons. But without it, the alliance becomes, as Macron once put it, “brain-dead”."}],[{"start":180.39999999999998,"text":"The second is the increasing centrality of Ukraine to European security. Its large army, combat experience and battlefield innovations with drones of all sorts make it an indispensable component for the deterrence and containment of Russia. "}],[{"start":195.99999999999997,"text":"There’s additional urgency to the ESC idea in Ukraine’s case. Kyiv’s unrealistic hopes of joining the EU as soon as next year will almost certainly be stymied by the EU’s onerous accession processes and apprehension in EU capitals about its readiness. So, as I wrote in Europe Express earlier this month, officials and experts are grasping for ways to lock it into the EU’s orbit by giving it benefits short of full membership. A seat on a European Security Council would be one."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":225.89999999999998,"text":"Bridging divides"}],[{"start":227.84999999999997,"text":"An ESC could help speed up co-ordination and political decision-making and foster more strategic responses, writes Luigi Scazzieri of the EU Institute for Security Studies. It could also help bridge institutional divides between the EU and Nato and with countries that are outside either of these bodies, Ukraine and Britain foremost."}],[{"start":250.14999999999998,"text":"Writing for the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University, Nathalie Tocci says “while Europeans recognize the threats they face, neither Nato nor the EU have fully lived up to the quest of securing Europe”. Nato’s defences against Russia have been strengthened. The EU has reduced dependencies on Russian gas, is seeking to rebalance trade with China and has taken “once unthinkable” initiatives on defence. But neither organisation, she writes, has been able to reduce “a major, possibly existential, vulnerability”, which is dependence on the US."}],[{"start":284.04999999999995,"text":"It is telling, she adds, that collective action on European security has often taken place outside the EU or Nato, such as the coalition of the willing on Ukraine or the group of countries that came to Denmark’s support in the face of US threats over Greenland. But these are temporary ad hoc formats. A permanent ESC would help forge a shared commitment to European solidarity and autonomy."}],[{"start":309.49999999999994,"text":"Shared goals"}],[{"start":311.29999999999995,"text":"Much of course would hinge on format and membership. Scazzieri has identified four possible models: EU leaders meeting in a dedicated security format of the European Council; a formalised EU Security Council; a formal council operating alongside the EU led by the bigger powers with different formats for different issues (EU only for EU defence, the UK included for wider European defence) as proposed by Kubilius; or a purely informal body outside the EU based on France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK, possibly with EU representation."}],[{"start":345.19999999999993,"text":"The first two would be easiest to set up, less contentious with smaller member states and potentially more attractive to Ukraine. But they would be hamstrung by EU procedures and consensus decision-making. Tocci proposes a council with big powers as permanent members and others on rotation. Crucially, all would have to subscribe to the same threat assessment and “a shared goal of defending Europe against Russia with much less America”. This would help exclude potential EU disrupters, like Slovakia."}],[{"start":375.6499999999999,"text":"There would be many other questions to answer: how would its decisions translate into Nato or EU ones? What role for Turkey?"}],[{"start":384.8999999999999,"text":"Heather Grabbe of the Bruegel think-tank in Brussels, says the ESC is “one of those empty vessels which people can fill with all kinds of different content”. But fundamentally, it is gaining traction because Nato cannot work without fresh European leadership."}],[{"start":400.69999999999993,"text":"It may not be a new idea, but its time has come. "}],[{"start":404.0999999999999,"text":"More on this topic"}],[{"start":406.0499999999999,"text":"There is no shortage of other ideas on a European Security Council and how it might work. See these by: Richard Whitman, Sergey Lagodinsky or Ionela Ciolan."}],[{"start":418.4499999999999,"text":"Pick of the week"}],[{"start":419.7999999999999,"text":"How Ukraine is turning the tables on its Russian aggressors in particular by its increased use of medium-range strike drones, by Christopher Miller and Max Seddon"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":436.1999999999999,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780214606_9145.mp3"}