{"text":[[{"start":16.4,"text":"This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘Can a Mexican cartel stronghold host the World Cup?’"}],[{"start":24.25,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":25.9,"text":"Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Friday, June 5th, and this is your FT News Briefing."}],[{"start":33.15,"text":"[MUSIC PLAYING]"}],[{"start":33.449999999999996,"text":"Elon Musk is cosying up to retail investors. And can a bunch of cockroaches upset Indian politics? Plus, the World Cup kicks off next week. We’ll take a look at the challenges one host city is facing."}],[{"start":46.3,"text":"Ciara Nugent"}],[{"start":48.25,"text":"Guadalajara is a place with a lot of cartel presence and a lot of cartel control. It’s not really the ideal image for a football tournament."}],[{"start":56.45,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":58.300000000000004,"text":"I’m Marc Filippino, and here’s the news you need to start your day."}],[{"start":62.650000000000006,"text":"[MUSIC PLAYING]"}],[{"start":63.550000000000004,"text":"SpaceX expects to go public about a week from now, and CEO Elon Musk wants to prioritise everyday investors. About one-fifth of SpaceX shares will be reserved for retail investors, according to sources familiar with the matter, and it’s unheard of for such a large IPO. "}],[{"start":80.95,"text":"Musk expects the company will raise around $75bn. Then again, this isn’t entirely out of character for Musk. He told his social media followers in 2020 they’d get top priority for the SpaceX listing. Individual investors own more than 40 per cent of Tesla’s stock. SpaceX will set the final IPO price on June 11th, and it’s expected to go public the next day."}],[{"start":105,"text":"[MUSIC PLAYING]"}],[{"start":108.05,"text":"It’s not unheard of to use an animal to symbolise a political party. Here in the US, the Democrats use a donkey and Republicans use an elephant. And in India, a youth protest movement is aligning itself with the cockroach. It’s gone viral, and it’s challenging the ruling party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi."}],[{"start":127.05,"text":"I’m joined by the FT’s south Asia bureau chief, Michael Stott, to tell the story of the Cockroach Janta Party. Hi, Michael."}],[{"start":134.95,"text":"Michael Stott"}],[{"start":137.79999999999998,"text":"Hello."}],[{"start":139.45,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":140.89999999999998,"text":"So Michael, how did this movement originate, and why did the party choose a cockroach as its emblem?"}],[{"start":147.49999999999997,"text":"Michael Stott"}],[{"start":149.14999999999998,"text":"So this party appeared almost out of nowhere. It was the brainchild of an Indian doing postgrad studies at Boston, in the US. His name is Abhijeet Dipke, and he said he had the idea for this movement after he had read in the papers of India’s chief justice calling unemployed young people cockroaches. And he was so outraged by this that he decided to start a satirical online protest movement called the Cockroach Janta Party. Now, that’s a play on the name of Prime Minister Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and that’s where this thing began."}],[{"start":183.09999999999997,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":184.89999999999998,"text":"Now, Michael, you spoke to Abhijeet Dipke. What’s his background, and how does he plan to capitalise on this moment?"}],[{"start":192.74999999999997,"text":"Michael Stott"}],[{"start":194.34999999999997,"text":"Well, he told me that he’d finished his master’s degree in public relations in Boston, and his plan was just to apply for jobs in the States and stay there."}],[{"start":203.54999999999995,"text":"And then this whole movement has changed his life. He’s got 22mn followers on Instagram. And they’ve been telling him they want him to turn this satirical online protest movement into a proper political movement in India. So he’s decided to respond to that by coming back to India. He plans to lead protests demanding the resignation of the education minister, who’s been implicated in some scandals over public examination problems."}],[{"start":229.14999999999995,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":230.59999999999994,"text":"Yeah. What are the problems in the education system that Dipke says need to be addressed?"}],[{"start":236.69999999999993,"text":"Michael Stott"}],[{"start":238.24999999999994,"text":"These exams are crucial for millions of Indians who take them every year, who spend years of their life and sometimes borrowed money studying to pass them because it’s their big chance to gain a decent job. And some of these exams have had to be cancelled after people have taken them because it’s emerged that the question papers haven’t been secure, or that mark sheets have been leaked, or that papers have been marked wrongly."}],[{"start":262.24999999999994,"text":"So Dipke, he says the first thing he does after getting back to India from the US will be to go to a police station in central Delhi and ask permission to hold a big rally in the government quarter of his supporters to demand the education minister’s resignation. That’s one of their main demands."}],[{"start":277.54999999999995,"text":"One of the others, of course, is young people should no longer be treated as cockroaches, but should get proper support from the government, and that the government needs to take seriously the crisis in youth unemployment in India."}],[{"start":289.99999999999994,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":291.44999999999993,"text":"Has the government said anything about this?"}],[{"start":294.69999999999993,"text":"Michael Stott"}],[{"start":295.99999999999994,"text":"Well, the government has responded by saying it doesn’t believe that the sudden explosive growth of this cockroach movement is genuine."}],[{"start":303.54999999999995,"text":"It thinks this is a campaign of bots. They believe these are bots originating in Pakistan — their arch-enemy. Cockroach party says that isn’t correct. They’ve published data from Instagram showing that 94 per cent of their Instagram followers are from India. But the government is insisting that it doesn’t believe that such rapid growth in numbers can be genuine."}],[{"start":324.65,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":326.34999999999997,"text":"Michael, do you think that this movement can last, and does Dipke think he’ll get a big turnout for the protests that he’s planning?"}],[{"start":333.9,"text":"Michael Stott"}],[{"start":335.45,"text":"He says he thinks tens of thousands of people will show up. What I’m told here by people who follow youth movements in India is that there is genuine discontent. There is a feeling that problems of youth unemployment and of problems in the exam system and in public education have not been addressed by the current government adequately over its 12 years in power."}],[{"start":357.84999999999997,"text":"So we may see India come up with a sort of youth protest movement of the type that some neighbouring nations like Bangladesh and Nepal have seen. There are also other people who say India’s different. It’s not something that’ll take off here, and they think this will be a flash in the pan. I think we’re just gonna have to see over the coming weeks and months how this plays out."}],[{"start":378.95,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":380.34999999999997,"text":"Michael Stott is the FT’s south Asia bureau chief. Thanks so much, Michael."}],[{"start":385.84999999999997,"text":"Michael Stott"}],[{"start":387.04999999999995,"text":"Thank you."}],[{"start":387.99999999999994,"text":"[MUSIC PLAYING]"}],[{"start":390.04999999999995,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":391.65,"text":"Soccer fans around the world are gearing up for the World Cup, but there’s one host city that could be a tough sell for soccer tourists. It’s Guadalajara in Mexico, home to one of the country’s most powerful criminal cartels. And lots of people are wondering whether it’ll be safe for fans. "}],[{"start":409.95,"text":"Here to discuss how the city is preparing is the FT’s Ciara Nugent. She travelled there earlier this year. Hi, Ciara."}],[{"start":417,"text":"Ciara Nugent"}],[{"start":418.75,"text":"Hi, Marc."}],[{"start":420.2,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":421.75,"text":"So I’ve never been to Guadalajara. It’s hosting four group stage games in the World Cup. Tell me a little bit about what the city is like."}],[{"start":429.35,"text":"Ciara Nugent"}],[{"start":431.35,"text":"Yeah, so it’s a big city. One of Mexico’s biggest economic centres. It feels pretty leafy; there are lots of shopping malls. You know, I would say it feels safe and like a normal city for tourists, but there’s also this other side to it that people are concerned about."}],[{"start":447.40000000000003,"text":"Guadalajara is the capital of Jalisco state, which is the home of the very powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel. And security forces killed the leader of that cartel in February, and it started a big reaction in Guadalajara."}],[{"start":461.95000000000005,"text":"There was, like, at least a day, a bit longer, of very violent protests. They burnt cars and businesses and killed some National Guard members. And I mean, those protests extended across the country, but they really drew attention to how Guadalajara is a place with a lot of cartel presence and a lot of cartel control, where they’re capable of these kind of co-ordinated attacks."}],[{"start":483.75000000000006,"text":"It’s not really the ideal image for a football tournament."}],[{"start":487.8500000000001,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":489.80000000000007,"text":"No, it seems on its face like it might be a pretty risky place to host the World Cup."}],[{"start":495.1000000000001,"text":"Ciara Nugent"}],[{"start":496.75000000000006,"text":"So I think, yes, on the face of it, it definitely seems that way, but I would say everyone I spoke to in Guadalajara — experts, law enforcement officials — almost all of them agreed that it’s just not in the cartel’s interest to disrupt the World Cup."}],[{"start":513.0500000000001,"text":"Fundamentally, these are businesses, illicit businesses, and killing or attacking tourists or big events is not gonna earn them any money. Actually, if they were going to earn money from tourists, it would be by selling them drugs or prostitution or trafficked alcohol and cigarettes, so they wouldn’t wanna drive those customers away. It would be very illogical and a lot more trouble than it’s worth."}],[{"start":534.7,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":536.4000000000001,"text":"There’s no reason to be worried about violence because why would you hurt your customer base? That makes a lot of sense. What have government officials said about the safety concerns?"}],[{"start":545.95,"text":"Ciara Nugent"}],[{"start":548.2,"text":"Yeah, I mean, first of all, you can’t rule out, like, any kind of crime. Obviously, visiting any big city in anywhere in the world, and especially in Mexico, there is some risk. But President Claudia Sheinbaum has been very insistent that there is every guarantee that tourists are gonna be safe during the World Cup. The national government is deploying almost 100,000 extra security forces around the country to make sure everything goes smoothly."}],[{"start":575,"text":"State governments are also pulling out all the stops. They really want this to be a moment to show the world that Mexico is in control, the state is in control, and it can be a big celebration for the country."}],[{"start":586.85,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":588.45,"text":"I guess the question that I have is, does Guadalajara have a track record of hosting games that maybe we could pull precedent from?"}],[{"start":596.1500000000001,"text":"Ciara Nugent"}],[{"start":597.8500000000001,"text":"Yeah. They hosted the Pan American Games in 2011, which, if I recall correctly, was during quite an intense period of inter-cartel fighting, but everything went off without a hitch. "}],[{"start":608.8500000000001,"text":"They host the world’s second-largest book fair every year that goes smoothly. I also went to a qualifier match in March in Guadalajara’s Akron Stadium. I think it was very boring in every respect, and there was no kind of unpleasant excitement. People had a good time. I think one goal was scored."}],[{"start":627.1000000000001,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":629.0000000000001,"text":"That’s exciting for a soccer match, isn’t it?"}],[{"start":632.0500000000001,"text":"Ciara Nugent"}],[{"start":634.0000000000001,"text":"(Laughter) Yeah, absolutely."}],[{"start":636.5500000000001,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":638.0000000000001,"text":"That’s the FT’s Ciara Nugent. Thanks, Ciara."}],[{"start":642.2000000000002,"text":"Ciara Nugent"}],[{"start":643.9500000000002,"text":"Thanks, Marc."}],[{"start":646.1000000000001,"text":"[MUSIC PLAYING]"}],[{"start":647.6500000000001,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":649.5000000000001,"text":"As we just heard, public safety for soccer fans attending the World Cup is one focus for the tournament that starts next week. So is the rivalry between betting markets and online gambling companies. To chat more about this mega event taking North America by storm, I wanna bring in Victoria Craig for our regular Friday chat."}],[{"start":669.2000000000002,"text":"Hi, Victoria."}],[{"start":672.3500000000001,"text":"Victoria Craig"}],[{"start":674.5000000000001,"text":"Hey, Marc."}],[{"start":676.7500000000001,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":678.3000000000001,"text":"So this is not just a battle on the pitch during the game, but also a battle for the dollars that go towards betting on the outcomes, right?"}],[{"start":685.95,"text":"Victoria Craig"}],[{"start":687.5500000000001,"text":"Bingo. And this is what bosses in the sports betting industry are describing as the biggest betting opportunity in history. It’s one that brings huge potential to attract new customers to their platforms."}],[{"start":698.95,"text":"So traditional bookmakers like Flutter’s FanDuel are increasingly moving into prediction market-style products because they’re trying to compete with the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket, and so that is really where things are starting to heat up."}],[{"start":713.4000000000001,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":715.3500000000001,"text":"And for folks who don’t know the difference between these two, the main difference is with sports betting, you’re betting against the house. With prediction markets, you’re betting against other traders."}],[{"start":726.2500000000001,"text":"Victoria Craig"}],[{"start":727.9500000000002,"text":"Right. And the other key thing to note is that some US states actually ban sports betting, whereas with prediction markets, they are able to bypass these bans because instead of being considered gambling products, they’re considered derivatives markets."}],[{"start":742.6000000000001,"text":"So this is the first World Cup to take place since prediction markets have really emerged as a major rival to the traditional sports betting industry."}],[{"start":750.6500000000001,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":752.2500000000001,"text":"So what does this mean when betting on the World Cup games?"}],[{"start":755.7000000000002,"text":"Victoria Craig"}],[{"start":757.4000000000002,"text":"Well, the two biggest prediction market operators now make most of their income from sports wagers, and contracts on the World Cup winner are already the biggest prediction market bets on record. Nearly $1.5bn on Polymarket already. So the platforms, as you can tell, are in a real battle for the bucks. They’re all rolling out discounts, deals, rewards, new features — all to attract all of us World Cup watchers sitting around waiting for ticket prices to fall."}],[{"start":788.0500000000002,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":789.8500000000001,"text":"(Laughter) We might be waiting a while."}],[{"start":792.5000000000001,"text":"Victoria Craig"}],[{"start":794.1500000000001,"text":"I think so."}],[{"start":795.2,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":796.75,"text":"Victoria Craig, thanks so much for breaking this down."}],[{"start":800.9,"text":"Victoria Craig"}],[{"start":802.65,"text":"Thanks, Marc."}],[{"start":804.35,"text":"[MUSIC PLAYING]"}],[{"start":805.7,"text":"Marc Filippino"}],[{"start":808,"text":"You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Check back next week for the latest business news."}],[{"start":818.8,"text":"The FT News Briefing was produced this week by Sonja Hudson, Saffeya Ahmed, Katya Kumkova, Fiona Symon and Victoria Craig. It was edited by me, Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Alex Higgins, Kelly Garry and Sam Giovinco. We had help this week from Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva, and Gavin Kallmann. Our intern is Cole van Miltenburg, our executive producer is Topher Forhecz, and our theme song is by Metaphor Music."}],[{"start":849.0999999999999,"text":"[MUSIC PLAYING]"}],[{"start":858.25,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780804582_5227.mp3"}