{"text":[[{"start":6.4,"text":"Does a billion dollars matter? If you are a Trump acolyte, the answer is “not really”."}],[{"start":11.8,"text":"For when it emerged this week that President Donald Trump earned more than $1bn in 2025 from digital currency interests, real estate and stock trades, the White House insisted that everything was legal. "}],[{"start":25.65,"text":"Possibly so. But this looks (at best) unseemly, given that Trump also oversees policies in those areas. Doubly so since it also just emerged that the Trump family is investing in Kazakh mining in (yet) another deal that appears to blend government and personal business."}],[{"start":43.05,"text":"Cue outrage from the left — and some on the right too. “The shamelessness . . . takes it to a new level,” laments Heather Boushey, a White House adviser in the previous Democratic administration. Or as the libertarian Cato Institute says: “No president in the history of the republic has issued so many facially unconstitutional executive orders or so brazenly defied federal courts including the Supreme Court.” Ouch."}],[{"start":67.75,"text":"Political scientists will pontificate about all this for years. But should investors also care? "}],[{"start":73.4,"text":"At first glance it might seem not. After all, the US stock market has soared under Trump. And few financiers ever mention that unseemly “c” word — corruption — in public; or, I suspect, in private investment committees."}],[{"start":88.2,"text":"But Matt King, a former top analyst at Citi, thinks this is a big mistake. He now runs a consultancy called Satori and argued in a recent report that investors must ponder all this urgently. “We’re stuck with this seemingly structural slide towards lawlessness,” he argues. “This isn’t just a political science observation. It’s an investment observation [too].” "}],[{"start":110.35,"text":"The reason is that King views Trump as a symptom of a long, stealthy erosion of US legal norms since 2014. And this affects more than America. "}],[{"start":120.64999999999999,"text":"The rules-based order has crumbled across the world, along with bodies such as the UN and World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, democracy is in retreat. The Bertelsmann Transformation Index says that “two-thirds of the countries surveyed since 2006 are less democratic today” and the “rule of law, political freedoms and fair competition continue to be weakened”."}],[{"start":143.45,"text":"Some blame this on falling trust: a Pew poll shows that only 17 per cent of Americans trust government now, compared with 77 per cent six decades ago. But for King the root cause is the lack of effective government in many democracies. This encourages voters to embrace a “strong man” or woman who claims they need to ignore laws, Congress or parliaments to deliver results. Or to cite Sir Tony Blair, the former UK prime minister: “The challenge of democracy is not transparency, honesty or conspiracy theories about the hidden power of elites. It is . . . the ability to get big things done.”"}],[{"start":182.6,"text":"So what should investors do? One sensible macro-level response would be to (re)read the work of the economists Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson and Simon Johnson; they crunched historical data and showed that rules-based institutions delivered higher economic growth than those governed by autocratic caprice. Even if lawlessness produces an economic sugar high, there is a long-term cost."}],[{"start":205.5,"text":"But another micro-level tactic is now being deployed by some hedge funds who are quietly copying the investments made by political elites. “If the Trump family are there, it will fly,” one hedgie recently told me. Call this the tribal investment play — as opposed to a fundamental or momentum-based strategy. "}],[{"start":223.6,"text":"However, tribalism carries risks. “With the right political connection, your stock goes up 10-fold,” says King. “But if you and your chosen leader fall from grace then it gets decimated.” The fate of 4iG in Hungary or Alibaba in China illustrates the point."}],[{"start":240.54999999999998,"text":"So King concludes that investors should be wary of bonds in a lawless world, since their “floor” — or recovery rates — can be wiped out along with political change. Even supposedly “safe” long-term fixed-income instruments are dangerous, since if the rule of law frays, borrowers might feel less pressure to repay debt."}],[{"start":258.7,"text":"However, “equities can actually do quite well in a lawless world, especially if they [have] real assets, pricing power or the right connections”, he adds. On that basis it also looks smart to buy options that reward you if a stock unexpectedly soars if it is embraced by the political elite."}],[{"start":277.75,"text":"Other analysts might disagree and/or prefer to frame their investing strategy around themes like national security. Many financiers also think — or pray — that this lawlessness is a temporary blip that will soon reverse itself; after all, American Republicans used to define their party by the rule of law and the Supreme Court has recently challenged some of Trump’s plans. "}],[{"start":302.85,"text":"I hope they are right. I hate this lawlessness and political capriciousness, but hateful or not, it cannot be wished away. So on the 250th anniversary of this great republic let us weep at the backsliding in American ideals — and then recognise that this is not just a political story but a capital markets saga too. It cannot be ignored."}],[{"start":332.50000000000006,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1783067514_2769.mp3"}