{"text":[[{"start":11.72,"text":"Fears that war in the Middle East would trigger a global food crisis by choking off fertiliser supplies failed to materialise because countries outside the Gulf rushed to fill the gap, trade data shows."}],[{"start":23.52,"text":"Urea imports from economies shipping via the Strait of Hormuz have dropped 85 per cent from prewar levels, as the US-Israeli war on Iran all but halted traffic through the waterway. But total import volumes fell only 6 per cent, as alternative suppliers boosted shipments by more than a quarter."}],[{"start":41.76,"text":"Egypt and Nigeria increased their urea exports by 98 and 81 per cent respectively over that period, according to the International Trade Centre, a joint agency of the UN and World Trade Organization. The US and Russia grew their share in key markets, the data shows, while China also increased its exports."}],[{"start":62.16,"text":"Analysts warned that fertiliser prices were rising to unsustainable levels for some of the world’s poorest countries."}],[{"start":68.32,"text":"“New suppliers emerged and supply chains adjusted to a certain degree. But there has been a cost. For many developing countries, the challenge has shifted from finding supplies to being able to afford them,” Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the ITC, told the FT."}],[{"start":84.6,"text":"Before the conflict, about a third of globally traded nitrogen fertilisers such as urea and ammonia passed through the Strait of Hormuz, along with almost half of globally traded sulphur, which is needed to turn phosphorus rock into fertiliser."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":97.48,"text":"Nitrogen, phosphate and potassium are the three main macronutrients needed by commercial crops."}],[{"start":103.68,"text":"“The quickest and most sure way to a food crisis is to not have nitrogen . . . it’s the most important nutrient that we put on crops,” said Willis Thomas, head of fertilisers at consultancy CRU."}],[{"start":114.8,"text":"ITC data found that average import costs for urea in the second quarter of 2026 rose by 70 per cent compared with a year earlier, while ammonia and sulphur prices also soared."}],[{"start":126.36,"text":"Benchmark urea prices in India peaked at nearly $950 per tonne in May. They have since fallen by more than 50 per cent to about $400, according to CRU."}],[{"start":136.12,"text":"In Egypt, producers including Abu Qir Fertilizers, MOPCO, Egyptian Basic Industries Corporation and Egyptian Fertilizers Company increased exports. In Nigeria, Dangote Fertiliser was also able to increase exports, with its 3mn-tonne-a-year urea plant becoming an increasingly important source of supply."}],[{"start":155.8,"text":"Thomas said China had seen “a lot of growth” in export capacity as well as Egypt and Nigeria — though Chinese exports are not included in the ITC data."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":166.34,"text":"The ITC analysis found that the effects were highly uneven, warning that higher prices could still lead to pressure on international food markets."}],[{"start":174.48,"text":"For example, Brazil, a major global exporter of soyabeans, cane sugar and maize, saw the cost of importing urea and sulphur increase by 56 per cent and 176 per cent respectively, with import volumes falling by more than one-third."}],[{"start":190.56,"text":"African countries are particularly exposed to the crisis, with South Africa, Kenya and Mozambique all sourcing more than 70 per cent of their urea imports from Hormuz suppliers before the conflict."}],[{"start":202.16,"text":"The ITC analysis warned that the concentration of supply left those economies particularly at risk of disruption to established suppliers and the resultant increase in costs."}],[{"start":212.52,"text":"Thomas said that while global trade had helped “avert a huge food crisis in the near term, in the longer term, higher fertiliser costs will continue to be an issue."}],[{"start":221.56,"text":"“Phosphate prices remain stubbornly high,” he added. “You can under-apply phosphate for a year or a couple of years but eventually it starts to hurt yields.”"}],[{"start":222.06,"text":"Data visualisation by Maxine Kelly"}],[{"start":236.12,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789472571_5079.mp3"}