{"text":[[{"start":5.76,"text":"The writer is an FT contributing editor and director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute"}],[{"start":12.92,"text":"As Republicans seek to learn lessons for their post-Donald Trump future, it is important for both the party and the conservative movement to recognise that the distinctly Trumpian elements of the president’s agenda have failed to achieve their objectives and to advance economic prosperity. Of the policies that have been motivated by populism and economic nationalism — marking a sharp departure from the traditional GOP consensus — the most prominent has been the trade war. Its two main goals were to increase manufacturing employment and reduce the trade deficit. Each of these goals is wrong-headed, and neither has been met."}],[{"start":47.28,"text":"In January 2017, as Trump’s first term began, 8.5 per cent of employees worked in the manufacturing sector. In January of 2025, the start of Trump’s current term, the share had fallen to 8 per cent, where it remained this September (the most recent month with available data)."}],[{"start":64.24,"text":"Meanwhile, the goods trade deficit has grown larger, not smaller. It has nearly doubled since January 2017. While the deficit has narrowed since January 2025 because businesses rushed to import goods to get ahead of Trump’s looming tariff increases, over the past year it grew by 55 per cent."}],[{"start":82.8,"text":"Trump’s push for a sharp reduction in immigrant inflows to the US during his current term has been another signature nationalist-populist policy. The goal was presumably to boost the economic outcomes of native-born Americans. But, according to my calculations, employment rates for the native-born population have fallen since January 2025, while rates for the foreign-born have increased. Comparing September 2026 to September 2025 shows a similar trend, as does comparing economic outcomes among native and foreign-born Americans aged 25 to 54 over that period. Nor have native-born workers seen their earnings grow faster than immigrants during Trump’s current term."}],[{"start":124,"text":"At $2tn, the budget deficit for 2026 is the largest outside a war or recession in US history. While the GOP’s fiscal record leaves much to be desired, Trump’s lack of concern about fiscal responsibility is a departure from the norm. Past Republican administrations have pursued — with and without success — cuts to social security and Medicare spending, the main drivers of projected structural deficits."}],[{"start":148.12,"text":"These failures have hurt the GOP’s political fortunes. In an economy with high prices and above-target inflation, Trump’s trade war was a political liability. Exit polls showed that nearly two-thirds of midterm voters think Trump’s tariffs have hurt the economy."}],[{"start":165.08,"text":"And although Trump’s success at securing the southern border is popular, his deportation and enforcement efforts have been more divisive. Meanwhile, his fiscal policy has put upward pressure on politically salient interest rates, including on home mortgage loans."}],[{"start":180.8,"text":"Trump’s approach has shown a disregard for the rule of law and the principle of limited government. His willingness to weaponise the criminal justice system in order to bend the Federal Reserve to his will eroded a foundation of prosperity and made the US look like a banana republic. Taking equity stakes in private companies, notably Intel, is another threat."}],[{"start":202.4,"text":"The administration has also often appeared chaotic and ineffective. Although reducing government spending and increasing efficiency are worthy goals, Elon Musk’s Doge effort amounted to very little. Similarly, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s recent efforts to jawbone the bond market into delivering lower yields call into question the administration’s competence. All of this contributed to Trump’s low approval rating and voters’ judgment at the ballot box."}],[{"start":229.44,"text":"There is still much to admire about Trump’s economic programme, including his signature 2017 and 2025 business tax reforms, which will boost productivity growth by encouraging investment. His approach to AI advances has been appropriately guided by the view that the government should “do no harm”. And he has encouraged domestic energy production, pushed to deregulate the economy and brought order to the southern border."}],[{"start":253.54,"text":"These elements of the president’s agenda would have fit comfortably in a traditional GOP administration. The failed policies would not. If Republicans want to keep the White House in 2028, they should look holistically at Trump’s economic programme and separate the wheat from the chaff."}],[{"start":272.4,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793862337_9940.mp3"}