{"text":[[{"start":7.64,"text":"The writer is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley and the author of ‘Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto’"}],[{"start":16.844,"text":"The US electorate in the just-concluded midterms voted overwhelmingly for change. Polls invariably showed that economic issues were at the top of voter concerns. In other words, the electorate voted not just for change but specifically for economic change."}],[{"start":31.8,"text":"But voters stand to be disappointed. A change in the partisan composition of Congress will have little impact on a policymaking process driven by executive orders, where Republican representatives are cowed by their president and Democrats offer no meaningful solutions to the country’s most pressing economic problems."}],[{"start":50.68,"text":"First on the list of public concerns is the cost of living, starting with the price-level impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs and war in the Middle East. Congress could attempt to reclaim the tariff-making authority that it ceded to the executive branch nine decades ago. But Trump would veto any such legislation."}],[{"start":68.56,"text":"Similarly, Congress could pass a war powers resolution demanding an end to hostilities in the Middle East. In time, this would bring down gas and diesel prices. Again, however, a president jealous of his prerogatives would veto this bill, and that would be that."}],[{"start":84.16,"text":"Healthcare is another pressing issue. Insurers have proposed a 15 per cent median rise in the price of policies under the marketplace plans of Obamacare, formally the Affordable Care Act. Temporary subsidies for middle-class enrollees have expired. Healthy individuals are opting out, causing premia for remaining members to rise further. Eliminating the penalty on individuals who chose to be uninsured, a provision designed to solve the opt-out problem, was one of the signal measures of the first Trump term. Good luck restoring it before his second term expires."}],[{"start":118.12,"text":"Another flashpoint was concern over AI data centres. Congress could pass legislation requiring stringent reviews and community input into data centre plans. It could require them to pay for additional electricity and water system capacity. But Trump, veto in hand, views America’s position in the AI race as more important than community concerns. He is, to put it bluntly, in the pocket of the AI and semiconductor industries. Changes in policy are more likely to come from officials at the state level."}],[{"start":147.62,"text":"The other issue that shaped the outcome of the midterms was immigration enforcement. Arbitrary detention and deportation are of particular concern, for obvious reasons, to the Latino and Asian American communities. Congress can say what it wants, but immigration policy is run by executive agencies headed by Trump appointees. When public opinion turned against aggressive enforcement, ICE simply pivoted to less visible tactics."}],[{"start":174.26,"text":"And then there is the economic elephant in the room, namely fiscal policy. Financial markets are showing concern about public debts above 100 per cent of GDP and budget deficits north of 6 per cent. Households feel the impact in the form of higher mortgage rates. They will feel the consequences even more painfully when out-of-control deficits lead to financial instability, as they will if nothing is done."}],[{"start":198.4,"text":"The political class remains singularly unwilling to address the fiscal problem. The standard Republican nostrum of balancing the budget by eliminating waste and fraud has been shown to be an illusion. We can thank the shortlived Doge — or so-called Department of Government Efficiency — for that."}],[{"start":214.36,"text":"But the Democrats are as bad on fiscal matters as the Republicans. They are unwilling to advance meaningful proposals for revenue enhancement — that is, measures that would significantly augment tax revenues. A wealth tax has appeal, but the expected defeat of California’s billionaire tax in a vote on Tuesday will not encourage them. It can be argued that the California measure failed because of fears billionaires would leave the Golden State for elsewhere in the US, a problem that would not plague a federal measure. But administration of a wealth tax is problematic and the additional revenue from taxing billionaires would not make a serious dent in the budget deficit."}],[{"start":251,"text":"The fact is that the US is a low-tax country by advanced-economy standards. The deficit problem can be addressed by comprehensive tax reform that closes loopholes and raises marginal rates in a progressive fashion. But doing this presupposes a Democrat in the White House, and one with vision. It also requires a Democrat-led Congress that moves beyond lunchbox platitudes and overcomes the fear that comprehensive tax reform is a political third rail."}],[{"start":281.58,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793951846_8775.mp3"}