{"text":[[{"start":6.69,"text":"For 16 years, Hungary’s prime minister has exerted an outsized influence. Viktor Orbán has been a model for strongmen leaders in building what he calls an “illiberal democracy”, a standard-bearer for anti-migrant nationalist conservatism, an obstacle to support for Ukraine and a thorn in the side of the EU. He is both chummy with Vladimir Putin and lauded by Donald Trump. But, for the first time since 2010, he faces a real prospect of defeat at the polls next Sunday. Not often does an election in an EU state of fewer than 10mn people attract such international attention."}],[{"start":48.72,"text":"In creating what the European parliament has called an “electoral autocracy”, Orbán both imported ideas from other authoritarians and exported new methods. His “state capture” borrowed from Putin in packing public roles with loyalists, and steering contracts and opportunities to loyal “oligarchs” — who then buy up independent media and support the ruling party. The Orbán system’s squeezing of judicial independence was aped by Poland’s Law and Justice party. But perhaps the most significant borrower is Trump’s Maga movement; critics have called Project 2025, a blueprint for Trump’s second term, a plan to “Orbánise” the US government."}],[{"start":93.55,"text":"For the populist right, Orbán honed the pitch of “conservative” values of religion and family, combined with hostility to immigration and a sovereigntist rejection of foreign influence. He has been central to building a far-right alliance including France’s Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, Spain’s Vox and Austria’s Freedom Party, which is now the third-largest faction in the European parliament. "}],[{"start":120.25,"text":"Both Moscow and Washington are rooting for a fifth straight term for the Hungarian premier. As the FT reported, the Kremlin backed a disinformation campaign aimed at helping him get re-elected, while senior Trump administration figures, notably vice-president JD Vance, are reportedly planning a high-profile trip to Hungary this week to bolster Orbán’s campaign."}],[{"start":145.48,"text":"Yet mounting discontent among Hungarians about perceived cronyism and corruption might be the premier’s undoing. This newspaper has chronicled Orbán’s system of crony capitalism, and how 13 men close to his administration won a major share of Hungary’s public contracts during his tenure. "}],[{"start":165.95999999999998,"text":"Faced with soaring living costs and a stagnant economy, voters are starting to notice the €20bn of EU funds for Hungary frozen by Brussels due to concerns over rule of law, public procurement and corruption. A challenger, former Fidesz politician Péter Magyar — helped by a knack for social media — has skilfully tied Orbán’s rocky EU relations and the frozen funds to Hungary’s deteriorating economy and public services."}],[{"start":198.89999999999998,"text":"Magyar’s Tisza party is not certain to win. His polling lead may be narrowed by a relentless campaign to denigrate him by the pro-Orbán media. Though past elections have been deemed “free but not fair” — due to Fidesz’s overwhelming communications dominance — opposition campaigners fear the ruling party may resort to more heavy-handed manipulation this time, or challenge the results if it is declared the loser. Even if Tisza wins, as in Poland, the Fidesz system and network may prove hard to dismantle."}],[{"start":235.07999999999998,"text":"But an opposition victory would offer the prospect of reviving open democracy in Hungary, and remove a frequent brake on EU decision-making, above all on aid to Ukraine. It would be a reversal for the populist right while it is on the march in much of western Europe. And it would demonstrate that authoritarian regimes are not always as entrenched as they might appear. A lot more than domestic issues will be at stake when Hungarians cast their ballots. "}],[{"start":272.41,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1775460067_9718.mp3"}