Iraq faces summer blackouts

{"text":[[{"start":8.2,"text":"Iraq is bracing for severe summer blackouts after the US-Israeli war choked off gas supplies from neighbouring Iran, compounding an energy crisis in the oil-rich country."}],[{"start":18.5,"text":"The prospect of power cuts during the sweltering summer months — when temperatures often exceed 45C and demand for cooling soars — comes as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz cuts off most of Iraq’s oil exports, which make up 90 per cent of the government budget."}],[{"start":36.1,"text":"This failure to diversify has turned Iraq into one of the countries most vulnerable to the fallout from the regional conflict, which began in February. Oil production has been slashed to about a quarter of prewar levels, according to Welligence analyst Eric Soosay, and Iraq has shut the majority of its oilfields."}],[{"start":55.95,"text":"“This is a war that Iraq was entirely unprepared for,” said Raad al-Kadiri, managing partner at political-risk advisory firm 3TEN32 Associates."}],[{"start":66.3,"text":"He added that new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who was sworn in in May after months of political infighting, faces a budgetary crunch and potential public unrest. Blackouts during the choking heat have previously triggered political protests in Iraq, including mass demonstrations during the summer of 2021."}],[{"start":84.69999999999999,"text":"“For a new government, the last thing you really want to run into is in your first few months being faced with potential penury and a very unhappy population that’s demanding services that you can’t deliver.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":96.89999999999999,"text":"Though one of Opec’s largest oil producers, Iraq burns away much of the gas from its oilfields and has over the past decade grown to depend on Iranian imports for about one-third of its power supply."}],[{"start":109.05,"text":"Analysts said this arrangement helped give Tehran, which has competed with Washington for influence in Baghdad since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, leverage over its neighbour. "}],[{"start":120.55,"text":"Iraq’s electricity ministry said the supply of Iranian gas was cut off completely after Israel bombed Iran’s South Pars gasfield in March. Imported gas then hovered at about 15mn cubic metres a day in April, the ministry said at the time, compared with the 50mn cubic metres required by Iraqi power stations."}],[{"start":140.4,"text":"The ministry warned that “electricity supply hours” would decline because of the war and said the conflict was impeding its attempts to prepare for peak summer demand and growing consumption."}],[{"start":151.05,"text":"Even the domestic gas used for its grid is in short supply after local oil production fell. In order to conserve gas, Iraq had switched as much as possible to burning crude for power, said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects. "}],[{"start":167.4,"text":"“Every year Iraq has serious blackouts,” Bronze added. “It is worst in the summer, but the situation does look even worse than previous years.”"}],[{"start":177.15,"text":"A floating liquefied natural gas terminal run by US company Excelerate Energy, which was supposed to help offset the summer shortages, has also been delayed because of the war."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":187.70000000000002,"text":"Analysts said the problems with electricity went beyond the war, however. Iraq had also sought to connect its grid with the Gulf but failed, said Harry Istepanian, founder of the Iraq Climate Change Center."}],[{"start":200.55,"text":"Luay al-Khateeb, a former Iraqi minister of electricity, said subsidies made electricity so cheap that demand rose each year at a rate the system struggled to keep up with."}],[{"start":211.35000000000002,"text":"Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, said the system had not been reformed because there was little political incentive to do so. “The electricity ministry is first seen as an opportunity to profit and second seen as an opportunity to provide services,” he said."}],[{"start":228.85000000000002,"text":"The severity of the situation will depend on how long the blockade in the strait continues. Reopening oilfields that have been shut down will not be straightforward. “Once a field is shut in, to bring it back, it takes a lot,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said of Iraq last week."}],[{"start":248.50000000000003,"text":"The government could borrow enough to cover the shortfall in its budget, as long as the regional crisis subsided within a few months, said Ahmed Tabaqchali, chief strategist at the AFC Iraq Fund."}],[{"start":259.90000000000003,"text":"But if the war continued indefinitely, “all bets are off”, Tabaqchali warned, adding that Iraq’s vast public sector payroll could be hit if the crisis dragged on — another potential source of political instability."}],[{"start":273.3,"text":"Ultimately, Mansour said, even if the government tries to redirect anger outside Iraq, blaming a war outside its control, the problem also has domestic roots. “Never mind that Iraq was not prepared for this crisis and has no contingency.”"}],[{"start":294.35,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780017994_7553.mp3"}