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战争

The Gulf states and Ukraine need each other

Countries in Iran’s line of fire need to shore up their drone defences, and Kyiv is in desperate need of funding
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":5.4,"text":"The writer is senior managing director of TRENDS US, an associate fellow at Chatham House and a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Forward Defense initiative"}],[{"start":15.3,"text":"President Donald Trump is expected to scrap security assistance for Ukraine in next year’s US defence budget. This provides a strategic opening for the Gulf states. They should replace decreasing US security assistance to Ukraine with funds of their own in return for Kyiv’s systematic help in counter-drone capabilities and training, which they desperately need."}],[{"start":37.150000000000006,"text":"The Gulf states are not about to abandon the US as their number-one security partner. They recognise that despite all its flaws, exposed so clearly during the Iran war, the US security umbrella is virtually irreplaceable. But they have an immediate security need the US cannot fulfil due to supply constraints and lack of capability. While the US has some of the best missile defence systems in the world, which Gulf states have utilised quite effectively against Iranian attacks, it is not the most capable or experienced counter-drone operator; Ukraine is."}],[{"start":69.35000000000001,"text":"The UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait have been attacked frequently with various Iranian drones, putting their critical infrastructure and overall economic wellbeing at serious risk. In March, Iran launched a barrage of drones and missiles at Ras Laffan, Qatar’s liquefied natural gas production hub. Although most were intercepted, three of the 20 projectiles went through, knocking out 17 per cent of the country’s export capacity. In April, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, a critical alternative route that allows the kingdom to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait’s main airport as well as power and desalination plants have been struck by Iranian drones, causing extensive damage."}],[{"start":112.75,"text":"The UAE has been hit the hardest, with nearly 3,000 Iranian drones and missiles launched at Emirati targets before a truce with Iran was agreed. Most recently, Iran struck the UAE’s key oil port of Fujairah, near the Strait of Hormuz. While all these facilities can be fixed or rebuilt, the real cost to the Gulf Arab states is to their image as a safe place for international business and tourism. That could take years to repair."}],[{"start":139.65,"text":"The answer to the Iranian drone challenge is not more interceptors. Iran has a considerable advantage; it can produce more low-cost drones faster than its opponents can make high-cost interceptors. Ukraine has avoided that trap by investing in capabilities that can detect, track, identify and ultimately defeat drones. Gulf governments should learn from Kyiv."}],[{"start":162.70000000000002,"text":"President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently toured the Middle East to negotiate air defence agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. While the sales promise some knowledge transfer, they were more focused on defence equipment than localisation. The Gulf states should not merely buy defence hardware from Ukraine. They also need Ukrainian operators to teach them how to produce, integrate, deploy and sustain counter-drone capabilities."}],[{"start":189.50000000000003,"text":"This would save money, safeguard the Gulf states’ sovereignty, reduce their reliance on allies when global supply chains are increasingly uncertain and ultimately build an ability to export anti-drone systems — which would help speed their economic transformation. The Gulf Arab states want to be global hubs for AI, but they can also be hubs for counter-drone capabilities."}],[{"start":210.25000000000003,"text":"Ukraine is currently overstretched and cannot send too many counter-drone operators abroad without the risk of endangering the home front. They need funding from the Gulf states. With it, Ukraine can scale and balance between security needs at home and export opportunities abroad."}],[{"start":228.15000000000003,"text":"The Gulf could replace dwindling US assistance and create a regional fund for Ukraine focused specifically on sustainable counter-drone solutions and innovation. Combining Ukrainian knowhow with US technology and Gulf Arab capital would put a serious dent in Iran’s strategy of attrition."}],[{"start":254.75000000000003,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780614661_5075.mp3"}

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