{"text":[[{"start":6.3,"text":"A decisive win for Armenia’s pro-western leader Nikol Pashinyan in parliamentary elections on Sunday is another sign of Russia’s shrinking global influence since Vladimir Putin’s disastrous full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The vote was Armenia’s most important since it gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. It was a plebiscite on the peace process with neighbouring Azerbaijan and on Pashinyan’s push for closer ties with Europe and the US without breaking altogether with Moscow. To tilt the race in favour of the pro-Russian opposition and ensure Armenia’s fealty, the Kremlin closed off imports of Armenian produce, threatened Ukraine-style intervention and deployed its standard disinformation techniques. It failed."}],[{"start":47.849999999999994,"text":"Putin’s delusional war of conquest in Ukraine was supposed to return Russia to imperial great power status. Instead, Moscow’s global reach is on the wane. It has turned supposed Ukrainian brothers into unyielding enemies. It has lost friendly or pliant regimes in Syria and Venezuela. Cuba may be next. Russian fighters are on the retreat in Mali. Central Asian states’ trade with Russia has increased but their governments are also busy diversifying their diplomatic ties. Moscow’s so-called “no limits” partnership with China is in reality one of increasing dependency with Russia the junior partner."}],[{"start":85.05,"text":"Russia’s grip on its South Caucasus satellite was broken in two military defeats that Armenia suffered against Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. In the second in 2023, Azerbaijani forces seized the whole of the enclave, forcing out its 100,000 Armenian inhabitants, in effect ending the conflict. Russia failed to intervene on either occasion, despite its collective security commitments to Yerevan. Armenian voters have not forgiven Moscow for its betrayal."}],[{"start":118,"text":"The decades-long conflict had locked Armenia into dependency on Moscow and rule by a kleptocratic pro-Russian elite. Now that it is over, it can pursue a less corrupt and more democratic path. To his credit, Pashinyan is seeking to make a virtue out of bitter defeat by pursuing peace with Azerbaijan, recognising its territorial integrity and opening up borders and trade, including with Turkey. Armenians on Sunday endorsed his policy."}],[{"start":145.5,"text":"There are still perils ahead and Moscow could still try to rein Armenia back in. Pashinyan’s party lacks a large enough parliamentary majority to initiate constitutional change through a referendum. Azerbaijan is insisting that it drop references in the constitution to Nagorno-Karabakh as a precondition for normalisation. The US and EU should try to persuade Baku to drop that demand or at least delay it. They should also lean on Azerbaijan and Turkey to open up their borders and trade flows to show Armenians some of the benefits of peace."}],[{"start":180.35,"text":"Moscow could still make life difficult. Its attempted interference in Armenia’s election came late and could have been more muscular. Perhaps it is too consumed with its war in Ukraine, or keeping some powder dry. It could impose a full trade embargo or raise the price of gas supplies. It still has a military base in Armenia and controls the country’s railways. Neighbouring Georgia’s slide back into oppressive one-party rule since 2024 should be a warning."}],[{"start":207.54999999999998,"text":"This makes it all the more important that the US and EU remain fully engaged. The Trump administration helped seal a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan last year and is the guarantor of a new transport corridor in the region that could boost economic interdependence and prosperity. The EU should meanwhile proceed with visa liberalisation for Armenians and promote trade and investment ties. Armenia is one country where Europe and America are aligned for the better. "}],[{"start":244.35,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780981762_9374.mp3"}