Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX’s AI revenue to increase 100-fold by 2030

{"text":[[{"start":12.85,"text":"SpaceX’s pitch to achieve a $1.78tn valuation in its initial public offering hinges on revenues at its AI unit surging by around 100 times by 2030, according to projections made by its lead investment bank Goldman Sachs."}],[{"start":29.65,"text":"Goldman expects revenues from SpaceX’s AI division to rise to $322bn by 2030 from $3.2bn in 2025, according to forecasts discussed by the Wall Street bank with a potential investor in the deal. SpaceX’s total revenue is expected to reach $474bn in 2030 from $18.7bn last year."}],[{"start":52.4,"text":"The bank’s lofty projections underscore the aggressive bets underpinning the AI investment boom by Big Tech firms that has propelled the US stock market to a series of record highs. Goldman’s model was verbally shared with the investor as SpaceX kicks off its IPO roadshow, in which bankers will seek to sell money managers on a deal that could raise up to $86bn. "}],[{"start":74.55,"text":"The valuation of Elon Musk’s rockets-to-chatbot group rests on an assumption that its AI division xAI — which made a loss of $6.4bn in 2025 — has a total addressable market of $26.5tn, SpaceX’s IPO prospectus shows. That dwarfs the roughly $2tn total addressable market outlined for the group’s Starlink internet service and space operations."}],[{"start":100.94999999999999,"text":"Goldman’s projections show that the Wall Street bank expects revenues at SpaceX’s AI segment to rise 388 per cent to $15.6bn in 2026 compared with the year prior and reach $34.5bn in 2027. The estimates were confirmed by a person familiar with the matter. "}],[{"start":122.29999999999998,"text":"SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment. Goldman declined to comment. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":127.79999999999998,"text":"Goldman is expecting SpaceX’s revenue from its Starlink satellite internet service to be $144bn in 2030, less than half of that generated by the AI unit. The bank forecasts SpaceX’s rocket division to generate $8.3bn in revenue in 2030, up from $4.1bn last year."}],[{"start":149.74999999999997,"text":"The bank also forecasts that SpaceX’s overall adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation will surge to $352bn in 2030 from $6.6bn in 2025. "}],[{"start":163.84999999999997,"text":"SpaceX generated negative free cash flow of $13.8bn last year. Goldman expects the company to swing to positive free cash flow of $72bn in 2031."}],[{"start":175.99999999999997,"text":"For the AI growth forecasts to be justified, SpaceX’s Grok family of models would have to catch up and surpass more advanced labs including Anthropic, Google and OpenAI in the critical fields of coding, cyber security, agents and chatbots."}],[{"start":192.84999999999997,"text":"However, the unit formerly known as xAI has been hamstrung by constant upheaval — Musk pushed out all 10 of his co-founders within two years — and has delivered subpar performance, leaving it with only a fraction of the consumer and corporate subscriptions needed to generate revenues."}],[{"start":209.79999999999995,"text":"Musk has also rented out the Colossus 1 data centre to rival Anthropic as the 300-megawatt facility in Memphis, Tennessee fell underutilised as Grok failed to gain traction."}],[{"start":222.69999999999996,"text":"Goldman Sachs pipped rivals Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and UBS to lead SpaceX’s IPO, which is expected to generate tens of millions of dollars in fees for the Wall Street banks."}],[{"start":247.74999999999994,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780622106_2556.mp3"}