Prediction market wagers on World Cup winner climb to $2bn

{"text":[[{"start":8.1,"text":"Prediction markets have taken bets worth close to $2bn on which country will win the World Cup, putting them on course to potentially break the record for the biggest market in history more than five weeks before the final."}],[{"start":20.049999999999997,"text":"On the eve of the tournament, which kicks off in Mexico on Thursday, the volume of bets placed on the winner on Polymarket alone has surpassed $1.8bn. A similar market on Kalshi, which is more US-focused, has amassed roughly $120mn."}],[{"start":36.949999999999996,"text":"The expanded 48-team World Cup, which features an additional 40 games compared with previous editions, has been talked up by gambling executives as the “biggest betting opportunity” in history."}],[{"start":49.14999999999999,"text":"Prediction markets, which have rapidly become a major force in the industry, are jostling to capitalise by offering novel bets and spending heavily on advertising."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":58.29999999999999,"text":"Macquarie estimates that World Cup-related bets across all gambling venues could exceed $50bn this year — a 43 per cent increase on the amount wagered on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar."}],[{"start":71.04999999999998,"text":"Polymarket has signed partnerships with online sports media groups, including OneFootball, which will embed its odds into streams of World Cup matches."}],[{"start":80.19999999999999,"text":"The prediction market operator is under scrutiny for offering markets related to global conflicts and for allegedly facilitating new forms of market manipulation. "}],[{"start":89.44999999999999,"text":"In April, a bettor was suspected of interfering with temperature gauges at Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport to swing a wager on Polymarket in their favour. US prosecutors are also pursuing multiple cases of alleged insider trading using the platform. "}],[{"start":104.74999999999999,"text":"Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market in the US, kicked off its World Cup campaign last week with an advert featuring coach José Mourinho. The company is also offering giveaways, including tickets to the World Cup final in New York, and said it planned to stream real-time odds on billboards across the US. "}],[{"start":122.6,"text":"Early trading activity suggests that gamblers on prediction markets are not placing conventional bets on the teams they believe are destined for glory. On Polymarket, the country that has attracted the greatest volume of betting is not Spain, France or even England, but Uzbekistan. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":139.35,"text":"Odds of an Uzbek victory are priced at about 0.01 per cent, but trading volume on the country’s chances of victory has exceeded $58mn, in part because Polymarket rewards users who provide liquidity. Most traders have already closed their positions, suggesting their activity was motivated by Polymarket rewards rather than optimism for Uzbekistan."}],[{"start":164.2,"text":"Prediction market operators, which are regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, have in recent weeks used its self-certification process to outline various new football-related wagers, such as whether a team or an individual player will score a certain number of goals within given timeframes. "}],[{"start":183.89999999999998,"text":"The surge in interest in prediction markets has not, at least so far, lifted ADI Predict Street, the largely unknown platform selected as Fifa’s official World Cup prediction market partner in April. Total trading volume across all of the Abu Dhabi-based platform’s World Cup markets was below $100,000 on Wednesday."}],[{"start":215.25,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1781174557_9750.mp3"}